Does Voter Turnout Affect the Votes for the Incumbent Government?
This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2013|
|Publication status:||Published in European Journal of Political Economy 36: 274-286, 2014.|
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- Fumagalli, Eileen & Narciso, Gaia, 2012.
"Political institutions, voter turnout, and policy outcomes,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 162-173.
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- Grofman, Bernard & Owen, Guillermo & Collet, Christian, 1999. "Rethinking the Partisan Effects of Higher Turnout: So What's the Question?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 357-376, June.
- Hortala-Vallve, Rafael & Esteve-Volart, Berta, 2011. "Voter turnout and electoral competition in a multidimensional policy space," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 376-384, June.
- Pacek, Alexander & Radcliff, Benjamin, 1995. "Turnout and the Vote for Left-of-Centre Parties: A Cross-National Analysis," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 137-143, January.
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- Blais, Andre & Young, Robert, 1999. "Why Do People Vote? An Experiment in Rationality," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(1-2), pages 39-55, April. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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