Does voter turnout affect the votes for the incumbent government?
This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout.
|Date of creation:||2013|
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- Eileen Fumagalli and Gaia Narciso, 2008.
"Political Institutions, Voter Turnout and Policy Outcomes,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
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- Eileen Fumagalli & Gaia Narciso, 2011. "Political Institutions, Voter Turnout and Policy Outcomes," Trinity Economics Papers tep0211, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- John Morgan & Felix Várdy, 2012. "Mixed Motives and the Optimal Size of Voting Bodies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(5), pages 986 - 1026.
- Linda Gonçalves Veiga & Francisco José Veiga, 2006.
"The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results,"
NIPE Working Papers
6/2006, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Francisco Jose Veiga & Linda Goncalves Veiga, 2010. "The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(13), pages 1727-1734.
- Rodrigo Martins & Francisco Veiga, 2013. "Economic performance and turnout at national and local elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 429-448, December.
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- James M. Buchanan, 1954. "Individual Choice in Voting and the Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 334.
- Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
- Grofman, Bernard & Owen, Guillermo & Collet, Christian, 1999. " Rethinking the Partisan Effects of Higher Turnout: So What's the Question?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(3-4), pages 357-76, June.
- Blais, Andre & Young, Robert, 1999. " Why Do People Vote? An Experiment in Rationality," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 99(1-2), pages 39-55, April.
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