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Electoral Turnout During States of Emergency and Effects on Incumbent Vote Share

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  • Marco Frank
  • David Stadelmann
  • Benno Torgler

Abstract

In March 2020, the second ballot of local elections in the German state of Bavaria was held under an official state of emergency due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Bavarian mayors are elected by majority rule in two-round (runoff) elections. Between the first and second ballot of the election, the state government announced a state of emergency with drastic measures to fight the spread of Covid-19, including a shutdown of public life and restrictions to individual mobility. We employ a difference-in-difference setting to contrast turnout of the first and second ballot in 2020 with the first and second ballots from previous elections. The state of emergency led to an increase in turnout of 10 percentage points. This increase in turnout is robust and there is no relevant heterogeneity of the increase across municipalities. We argue that voting is an act of identifying with the collectivity of society which seemed to increase under adverse circumstances. In addition, the emergency induced higher turnout from the difference-in-difference setting is employed as an instrument to analyze the effect of turnout on the vote share of incumbents. Controlling for party affiliations and other factors, the results indicate that incumbents tend to profit marginally from higher turnout.

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  • Marco Frank & David Stadelmann & Benno Torgler, 2020. "Electoral Turnout During States of Emergency and Effects on Incumbent Vote Share," CREMA Working Paper Series 2020-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    • Handle: RePEc:cra:wpaper:2020-10
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Voter en temps de pandémie : l’enseignement des municipales de 2020
      by The Conversation in Contrepoints on 2021-04-20 02:40:01

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Politics

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    Cited by:

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    2. Jochen Güntner, 2020. "The toll of voting in a pandemic: Municipal elections and the spread of COVID-19 in Bavaria," Economics working papers 2020-15, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    3. Frank, Marco & Stadelmann, David, 2022. "Competition, Benchmarking, and Electoral Success: Evidence from 65 years of the German Bundestag," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264070, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; turnout; mayoral elections; voting in crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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