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Does Rain Help the Republicans? Theory and Evidence on Turnout and the Vote

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  • Knack, Steve

Abstract

Conventional political wisdom holds that inclement weather on election day reduces turnout and helps elect Republican candidates. Analysis of National Climatic Data Center weather records and National Election Studies survey data for 1984, 1986, and 1988 refutes the latter hypothesis: interaction variables based on various measures of partisanship and election-day rainfall show no evidence of partisan differences in the turnout-deterring impact of inclement weather. Furthermore, rainfall does not significantly reduce the probability of voting for the National Election Studies samples as a whole, but only among those respondents scoring low on the standard National Election Studies civic duty indicator. Copyright 1994 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Knack, Steve, 1994. "Does Rain Help the Republicans? Theory and Evidence on Turnout and the Vote," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(1-2), pages 187-209, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:79:y:1994:i:1-2:p:187-209
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    1. Strange findings about voting for primary day
      by ? in Nudge blog on 2008-05-20 17:00:00

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    Cited by:

    1. Helios Herrera & Cesar Martinelli, 2006. "Group Formation and Voter Participation," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000225, UCLA Department of Economics.
    2. Hoffman, Mitchell & León, Gianmarco & Lombardi, María, 2017. "Compulsory voting, turnout, and government spending: Evidence from Austria," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 103-115.
    3. Herrera, Helios & Martinelli, Cesar, 2006. "Group formation and voter participation," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(4), pages 461-487, December.
    4. Godefroy, Raphael & Henry, Emeric, 2016. "Voter turnout and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 389-406.
    5. León, Gianmarco, 2017. "Turnout, political preferences and information: Experimental evidence from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 56-71.
    6. Lo Prete, Anna & Revelli, Federico, 2014. "Voter Turnout and City Performance," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201435, University of Turin.
    7. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar & Abel François, 2018. "Place of registration and place of residence: the non-linear detrimental impact of transportation cost on electoral participation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 405-440, September.
    8. Cozzi, Guido & Mantovan, Noemi & Sauer, Robert M., 2013. "Does it Pay to Work for Free? Wage Returns and Gender Differences in the Market for Volunteers," Economics Working Paper Series 1330, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    9. Richard J. Cebula & Garey C. Durden & Patricia E. Gaynor, 2008. "The Impact of the Repeat-Voting-Habit Persistence Phenomenon on the Probability of Voting in Presidential Elections," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 429-440, October.
    10. Tim Powlowski & Dennis Coates, 2013. "The habit for voting, “civic duty” and travel distance," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 13-05, UMBC Department of Economics.
    11. Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard, 2013. "It’s the weather, stupid! Individual participation in collective May Day demonstrations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 251-271, June.
    12. repec:spr:revint:v:15:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11558-018-9305-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ade, Florian & Freier, Ronny, 2013. "Divided government versus incumbency externality effect—Quasi-experimental evidence on multiple voting decisions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-20.
    14. Wiberg, Magnus, 2011. "Political participation, regional policy and the location of industry," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 465-475, September.
    15. Niklas Potrafke & Felix Roesel, 2020. "Opening hours of polling stations and voter turnout: Evidence from a natural experiment," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 133-163, January.
    16. Rainald Borck, 2018. "Political Participation and the Welfare State," CESifo Working Paper Series 7128, CESifo Group Munich.
    17. Christine Fauvelle-Aymar & Abel François, 2003. "Campagne électorale, préférences politiques et participation. Une étude empirique sur les élections législatives françaises de 1997," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    18. Martorana, Marco Ferdinando, 2011. "Voting Behaviour in a dynamic perspective: a survey," MPRA Paper 37592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Artés, Joaquín, 2014. "The rain in Spain: Turnout and partisan voting in Spanish elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 126-141.
    20. Richard J. Cebula & Garey C. Durden, 2007. "Expected Benefits of Voting and Voter Turnout," Working Papers 07-06, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    21. Freier, Ronny, 2015. "The mayor's advantage: Causal evidence on incumbency effects in German mayoral elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 16-30.
    22. Jens Hainmueller & Holger Lutz Kern, 2005. "Incumbency Effects in German and British Elections: A Quasi- Experimental Approach," Public Economics 0505009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Gary Roseman & E. Stephenson, 2005. "The Effect of Voting Technology on Voter Turnout: Do Computers Scare the Elderly?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-47, April.
    24. Kroneberg, Clemens, 2006. "The definition of the situation and variable rationality : the model of frame selection as a general theory of action," Papers 06-05, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    25. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09iats1f0hh is not listed on IDEAS

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