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Does Voter Turnout Affect the Votes for the Incumbent Government?

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Martins

    (GEMF/ Faculty of Economics University of Coimbra, Portugal)

  • Francisco José Veiga

    (NIPE/ University of Minho, Portugal)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Martins & Francisco José Veiga, 2013. "Does Voter Turnout Affect the Votes for the Incumbent Government?," GEMF Working Papers 2013-20, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2013-20
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodrigo Martins & Francisco Veiga, 2013. "Economic performance and turnout at national and local elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 429-448, December.
    2. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65, pages 135-135.
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    6. Pacek, Alexander & Radcliff, Benjamin, 1995. "Turnout and the Vote for Left-of-Centre Parties: A Cross-National Analysis," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 137-143, January.
    7. Riker, William H. & Ordeshook, Peter C., 1968. "A Theory of the Calculus of Voting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 25-42, March.
    8. James Honaker & Gary King, 2010. "What to Do about Missing Values in Time‐Series Cross‐Section Data," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(2), pages 561-581, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vote Shares; Turnout; Legislative Elections; Portugal.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations

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