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Capital flows, long term bond yields and fiscal stance: the Eurozone policy trilemma

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  • Rosaria Canale

Abstract

The paper aims at estimating the existence of a trilemma in the Eurozone, i.e., to assess to what extent the net capital flows, the volatility of bond yields and the fiscal stance are strictly linked to each other constraining countries’ ability to manage the internal policy goals. The existence of constraints on policy alternatives is estimated for 11 Eurozone countries from 2002 till 2012. The sample is then divided into pre- (2002–2008) and post-crisis (2009–2012) periods. A further division between the PIIGS and the non-PIIGS is then applied. The results show the validity of the trilemma for the whole Euro area and for the whole period but with some distinction between the pre- and post-crisis periods and between the PIIGS and the non-PIIGS countries. The existence of the trilemma underlines the presence of national constraints and suggests, for the future of the Eurozone, to push towards centralized fiscal policy instruments. Copyright ISEG 2015

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  • Rosaria Canale, 2015. "Capital flows, long term bond yields and fiscal stance: the Eurozone policy trilemma," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 14(1), pages 31-44, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:portec:v:14:y:2015:i:1:p:31-44
    DOI: 10.1007/s10258-015-0110-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurozone trilemma; Policy goals; Capital flows; Fiscal stance; Bond yields; E61; F41; C21; C23;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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