The economic impacts of harmful algal blooms on tourism: an examination of Southwest Florida using a spline regression approach

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) can be a natural hazard unlike anything else. Whereas a hurricane or tornado has a sudden and devastating impact to an area, an HAB can slowly impact people and the environment over the course of weeks, even months. Karenia brevis, more commonly known as red tide, can have this effect along the Gulf Coast of Florida, lasting for many weeks in a row, causing large-scale deaths in fish and other marine life, and respiratory issues in humans. These harmful effects can effect tourism, as visitors are not able to enjoy the coastlines Florida is famous for. We test a 6 county region, from Pinellas County, FL down to Collier County, FL, to determine the magnitude with which an additional day of red tide affects tourism-related revenues. Using a spline regression approach, we find that an additional day of red tide in a month with 17 days or more of red tide drives monthly lodging sector sales down by 1–2%, and restaurant sector sales down by 0.5–1%. As these blooms are increasing in frequency and persistency, it becomes of great importance to counties and effected businesses to control and mitigate red tide blooms as soon as possible. If not, losses and harmful effects will only continue to grow and become detrimental to the environment and economy.