Are public preferences reflected in monetary policy reaction functions?
In this paper, we test whether public preferences for price stability (obtained from the Eurobarometer survey) were actually reflected in the interest rates set by eight central banks. We estimate augmented Taylor (1993) rules for the period 1976Q2–1994Q1 using the dynamic GMM estimator. We find, first, that interest rates did reflect society’s preferences since the central banks raised rates when society’s inflation aversion was above its long-run trend. Second, the reaction to inflation is was non-linearly increasing in the degree of inflation aversion. Third, this emphasis on fighting inflation did not have a detrimental effect on output stabilization. We conclude with some implications concerning the democratic legitimation of central banks.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Clarida, 2001.
"The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
8603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard H, 2001. "The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 315-23, October.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981.
"Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,"
451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Jakob de Haan & Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger, 2000. "The Democratic Accountability of the European Central Bank: A Comment on Two Fairy-tales," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 393-407, 09.
- Ruth Judson & Ann L. Owen, 1997. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a practical guide for macroeconomists," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981.
"A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model,"
NBER Working Papers
0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010.
"Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy,"
IMF Staff Position Notes
2010/03, International Monetary Fund.
- White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
- Vašíček, Bořek, 2012.
"Is monetary policy in the new EU member states asymmetric?,"
Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 235-263.
- Borek Vasícek, 2010. "Is Monetary Policy in New Members States Asymmetric?," Working Papers wpdea1010, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
- Borek Vasicek, 2010. "Is Monetary Policy in New Members States Asymmetric?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1005, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Is Monetary Policy in the New EU Member States Asymmetric?," Working Papers 2011/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, June.
- Jörg Breitung & Samarjit Das, 2005.
"Panel unit root tests under cross-sectional dependence,"
Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 59(4), pages 414-433.
- Samarjit Das & Joerg Breitung, 2004. "Panel Unit Root Tests under Cross- sectional Dependence," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 55, Econometric Society.
- David Roodman, 2009.
"A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, 02.
- Hayo, Bernd, 1998. "Inflation culture, central bank independence and price stability," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 241-263, May.
- Eijffinger, S-C-W & de Haan, J, 1996.
"The Political Economy of Central-Bank Independence,"
Princeton Studies in International Economics
19, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Eijffinger, S. & De Hann, J., 1995. "The Political Economy of Central Bank Independence," Papers 9587, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Hayo, Bernd & Hefeker, Carsten, 2002. "Reconsidering central bank independence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 653-674, November.
- Tillmann, Peter, 2008. "The conservative central banker revisited: Too conservative is more costly than too liberal," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 737-741, December.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- John H. Cochrane, 2007.
"Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules,"
NBER Working Papers
13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kiviet, Jan F., 1995.
"On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
- Tom Doan, . "LSDVC: RATS procedure to estimate a dynamic FE model with correction for bias," Statistical Software Components RTS00111, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1990.
"Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy,"
90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January.
- Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983.
"Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy,"
NBER Working Papers
1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
- Berger, Helge & de Haan, Jakob & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W, 2000.
"Central Bank Independence: An Update of Theory and Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2353, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Berger, Helge & de Haan, Jakob & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W, 2001. " Central Bank Independence: An Update of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 3-40, February.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
- Scheve, Kenneth, 2004. "Public Inflation Aversion and the Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policymaking," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(01), pages 1-34, February.
- Robert G. King, 2000. "The new IS-LM model : language, logic, and limits," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 45-103.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:60-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.