IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Can interest rate spreads stabilize the euro area?

Listed author(s):
  • Jacek Kotłowski
  • Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
  • Kamil Wierus

Over the last few years significant spreads arose for both public and private debt between euro area countries. We check whether these spreads could be made to work towards the goal of providing more stability to the euro area. In particular we focus on reducing the imbalances that arose between the core and peripheral members of the euro area in the first decade of its existence. The idea is that stable, positive spreads in peripheral countries could have decreased domestic demand thus preventing the boom-bust cycles that plagued these economies. They could also prevent such developments in the future.Panel data analysis.Our results show that spreads between real interest rates of 1.5 to 5.8 percentage points would be necessary to reduce current account deficits in the four peripheral countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain) to levels that would have stabilized these countries net foreign asset positions. The policy conclusion from this paper is that instead of fighting spreads accross the board, the ECB could accept their existence, provided that they behave in a relatively stable way and are close to the equilibrium levels that we calculate. Otherwise it cannot be excluded that the history of diverging current account balances, lost competitiveness and sharply rising spreads at the least desireable moment will repeat itself in a few years.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://ecomod.net/system/files/Equilibrium_spreads_Ecomod.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EcoMod in its series EcoMod2014 with number 6886.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 03 Jul 2014
Handle: RePEc:ekd:006356:6886
Contact details of provider: Postal:
351 Pleasant Street, #357, Northampton MA 01060-3900 USA

Phone: +1 413 586 3203
Fax: +1 413 517 0900
Web page: http://www.ecomod.net

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Zuzana Brixiova & Laura Vartia & Andreas Wörgötter, 2009. "Capital Inflows, Household Debt and the Boom-bust Cycle in Estonia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 700, OECD Publishing.
  2. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2012. "Thousands of models, one story: Current account imbalances in the global economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1319-1338.
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  4. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Pascal Jacquinot & Marcin Kolasa, 2014. "Can We Prevent Boom-Bust Cycles During Euro Area Accession?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 35-69, February.
  5. Bun, Maurice J. G. & Kiviet, Jan F., 2003. "On the diminishing returns of higher-order terms in asymptotic expansions of bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 145-152, May.
  6. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  7. Bun, Maurice J.G. & Kiviet, Jan F., 2006. "The effects of dynamic feedbacks on LS and MM estimator accuracy in panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 409-444, June.
  8. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Giovanni S. F. Bruno, 2005. "Estimation and inference in dynamic unbalanced panel-data models with a small number of individuals," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(4), pages 473-500, December.
  10. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
  11. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
  12. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, November.
  13. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
  14. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
  15. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ekd:006356:6886. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Theresa Leary)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.