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Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies

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Listed:
  • Peter Rafaj
  • Wolfgang Schöpp
  • Peter Russ
  • Chris Heyes
  • Markus Amann

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of co-benefits for traditional air pollutants made possible through global climate policies using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The impact analysis is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: the European Union (EU), China, India and the United States. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. Expenditures on air pollution control under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 250 billion € when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of financial co-benefits estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 occur in China, while an annual cost saving of 35 billion (Euros) € is estimated for the EU if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. Health impacts of air pollution are quantified in terms of loss of life expectancy related to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of fine particles, as well as in terms of premature mortality due to ground-level ozone. For example in China, current ambient concentrations of particulate matter are responsible for about 40 months-losses in the average life expectancy. In 2050, the climate strategies reduce this indicator by 50 %. Decrease of ozone concentrations estimated for the climate scenario might save nearly 20,000 cases of premature death per year. Similarly significant are reductions of impacts on ecosystems due to acidification and eutrophication. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Rafaj & Wolfgang Schöpp & Peter Russ & Chris Heyes & Markus Amann, 2013. "Co-benefits of post-2012 global climate mitigation policies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(6), pages 801-824, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:18:y:2013:i:6:p:801-824
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-012-9390-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Russ & Juan Carlos Ciscar & Bert Saveyn & Antonio Soria & Laszlo Szabo & Tom Van Ierland & Denise Van Regemorter & Rosella Virdis, 2009. "Economic Assessment of Post-2012 Global Climate Policies - Analysis of Gas Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models," JRC Research Reports JRC50307, Joint Research Centre.
    2. John Van Aardenne & Franciscus Dentener & Rita Van Dingenen & Greet Janssens-Maenhout & Elina Marmer & Elisabetta Vignati & Hans Peter Russ & Laszlo Szabo & Frank Raes, 2010. "Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Combined Climate Change and Air Pollution Policy Scenarios," JRC Research Reports JRC61281, Joint Research Centre.
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    2. Cao, Libin & Tang, Yiqi & Cai, Bofeng & Wu, Pengcheng & Zhang, Yansen & Zhang, Fengxue & Xin, Bo & Lv, Chen & Chen, Kai & Fang, Kai, 2021. "Was it better or worse? Simulating the environmental and health impacts of emissions trading scheme in Hubei province, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Nam, Kyung-Min & Waugh, Caleb J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M. & Karplus, Valerie J., 2014. "Synergy between pollution and carbon emissions control: Comparing China and the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 186-201.
    4. Bollen, Johannes & Brink, Corjan, 2014. "Air pollution policy in Europe: Quantifying the interaction with greenhouse gases and climate change policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 202-215.
    5. Henneman, Lucas R.F. & Rafaj, Peter & Annegarn, Harold J. & Klausbruckner, Carmen, 2016. "Assessing emissions levels and costs associated with climate and air pollution policies in South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 160-170.
    6. Dong, Huijuan & Dai, Hancheng & Dong, Liang & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Geng, Yong & Klimont, Zbigniew & Inoue, Tsuyoshi & Bunya, Shintaro & Fujii, Minoru & Masui, Toshihiko, 2015. "Pursuing air pollutant co-benefits of CO2 mitigation in China: A provincial leveled analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 165-174.
    7. Joana Portugal-Pereira & Alexandre Koberle & André F. P. Lucena & Pedro R. R. Rochedo & Mariana Império & Ana Monteiro Carsalade & Roberto Schaeffer & Peter Rafaj, 2018. "Interactions between global climate change strategies and local air pollution: lessons learnt from the expansion of the power sector in Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 293-309, May.
    8. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Martiskainen, Mari & Hook, Andrew & Baker, Lucy, 2020. "Beyond cost and carbon: The multidimensional co-benefits of low carbon transitions in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    9. Liu, Yang & Zhang, Congrui & Xu, Xiaochuan & Ge, Yongxiang & Ren, Gaofeng, 2022. "Assessment of energy conservation potential and cost in open-pit metal mines: Bottom-up approach integrated energy conservation supply curve and ultimate pit limit," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    10. Xian, Botong & Wang, Yanan & Xu, Yalin & Wang, Juan & Li, Xiaoyan, 2024. "Assessment of the co-benefits of China's carbon trading policy on carbon emissions reduction and air pollution control in multiple sectors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1322-1335.
    11. Bollen, Johannes, 2015. "The value of air pollution co-benefits of climate policies: Analysis with a global sector-trade CGE model called WorldScan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 178-191.
    12. Weitzel, Matthias & Saveyn, Bert & Vandyck, Toon, 2019. "Including bottom-up emission abatement technologies in a large-scale global economic model for policy assessments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 254-263.
    13. Keii Gi & Fuminori Sano & Ayami Hayashi & Keigo Akimoto, 2019. "A model-based analysis on energy systems transition for climate change mitigation and ambient particulate matter 2.5 concentration reduction," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 181-204, February.
    14. Shuo Gao & Ping Jiang, 2020. "Detecting and understanding co-benefits generated in tackling climate change and environmental degradation in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 4589-4618, June.
    15. Alban Kitous & Kimon Keramidas & Toon Vandyck & Bert Saveyn & Rita Van Dingenen & Joe Spadaro & Mike Holland, 2017. "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017: How climate policies improve air quality," JRC Research Reports JRC107944, Joint Research Centre.

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