IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jknowl/v16y2025i3d10.1007_s13132-024-02462-2.html

Unraveling the Regional Determinants of Capital Flight: A Comparative Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Jaffar Abbas

    (Government Zamindar Graduate College
    University of Education)

  • Shabbir Ahmad

    (University of the Punjab)

  • Naveed Hayat

    (University of Education)

  • Shabbir Ahmad

    (The University of Queensland)

Abstract

This study explores the intricate linkage between capital flight (CF) and its determinants, how regional CF may be impacted by financial development and economic growth, and how these factors may vary across different regions of the world. The examined factors that contribute to capital flight in six different regions of the world include financial development, trade, GDP per capita growth, real interest rate, and the exchange rate. Using annual data from 186 countries from 2002 to 2021, we employ robust feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) models for empirical analysis, which remedy the problem of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. It is found that GDP per capita growth does not have a significant impact on CF in any region. Financial development shows a regionally varying influence on CF, with a significantly negative impact in East Asia and Pacific, and South Asia. A higher trade volume significantly increases CF in Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia. The real interest rate generally has an insignificant impact on CF, except in Sub-Saharan Africa where it has a significantly negative effect. The exchange rate significantly increases CF in East Asia and Pacific and South Asia, while its impact is insignificant in other regions. In East Asia and Pacific, higher GDP amplifies the negative impact of financial development on CF and exacerbates the positive impact of trade volume on CF. The study recommends stimulating economic growth, strengthening financial development, improving trade policies, and increasing exchange rate stability to lessen the danger of CF.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Jaffar Abbas & Shabbir Ahmad & Naveed Hayat & Shabbir Ahmad, 2025. "Unraveling the Regional Determinants of Capital Flight: A Comparative Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(3), pages 13516-13536, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:16:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s13132-024-02462-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s13132-024-02462-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13132-024-02462-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13132-024-02462-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2001. "Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 377-381, June.
    2. Syed Jaffar Abbas & Muhammad Munawar Hussain & Muhammad Salman & Sara Shahid & Asim Iqbal, 2022. "Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Environment Relationship: A Panel Data Analysis of South Asian Countries," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(4), pages 143-151, December.
    3. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2014. "Market distortions and local indeterminacy: A general approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 216-247.
    4. Leonce Ndikumana & James Boyce, 2011. "Capital flight from sub-Saharan Africa: linkages with external borrowing and policy options," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 149-170.
    5. Ndikumana, Léonce & Sarr, Mare, 2019. "Capital flight, foreign direct investment and natural resources in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Michael P. Dooley, 1996. "A Survey of Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 639-687, December.
    7. Pakko, Michael R., 2000. "Do high interest rates stem capital outflows?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 187-192, May.
    8. Muhammad Munawar Hussain & Asim Iqbal & Syed Jaffar Abbas & Sara Shahid & Laila Khalid, 2022. "Navigating the Path to Increase FDI in South Asia: The Role of Economic Freedom," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(4), pages 350-359, December.
    9. Léonce Ndikumana, 2016. "Causes and Effects of Capital Flight from Africa: Lessons from Case Studies," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(S1), pages 2-7, April.
    10. Yuanyuan Hao, 2023. "The dynamic relationship between trade openness, foreign direct investment, capital formation, and industrial economic growth in China: new evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Leonce Ndikumana & Mare Sarr, 2019. "Capital Flight, Foreign Direct Investment and Natural Resources in Africa," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2019-12, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    12. Dini Yuniarti, 2005. "Uji Kausalitas : Utang Luar Negeri dan Capital Flight di Indonesia, 1974-2002," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 10(3).
    13. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    14. Syed Jaffar Abbas & Noman Arshed, 2023. "Examining Determinants of Regional Inflation Heterogeneity — A Robust Panel Data Analysis," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    15. Alemayehu Geda & Addis Yimer, 2016. "Capital Flight and its Determinants: The Case of Ethiopia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(S1), pages 39-49, April.
    16. Zhang, Wei-Guo & Zhang, Xili & Chen, Yunxia, 2011. "Portfolio adjusting optimization with added assets and transaction costs based on credibility measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 353-360.
    17. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 1998. "The Effect of Financial Liberalization on Capital Flight in African Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1349-1368, July.
    18. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    19. Asiedu, Elizabeth, 2002. "On the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries: Is Africa Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 107-119, January.
    20. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Taylor, Ashley D., 2011. "Thresholds in the process of international financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 147-179, February.
    21. Ghulam Mustafa & Said Zamin Shah & Asim Iqbal, 2020. "Impact of Foreign Remittances on Financial Development of Pakistan," Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies, CSRC Publishing, Center for Sustainability Research and Consultancy Pakistan, vol. 6(1), pages 331-342, March.
    22. Dianah Ngui Muchai & Joseph Muchai, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Capital Flight in Kenya," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(S1), pages 8-21, April.
    23. Emmanuel Uche & Lionel Efom, 2021. "Correction to: Fighting capital flight in Nigeria: have we considered global uncertainties and exchange rate volatilities? Fresh insights via quantile ARDL model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(8), pages 1-1, August.
    24. Emmanuel Uche & Lionel Effiom, 2021. "Fighting capital flight in Nigeria: have we considered global uncertainties and exchange rate volatilities? Fresh insights via quantile ARDL model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-22, June.
    25. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    26. Valerie Cerra & Meenakshi Rishi & Sweta Saxena, 2008. "Robbing the Riches: Capital Flight, Institutions and Debt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(8), pages 1190-1213.
    27. Zeng, Ximei & Zhou, Zhongbao & Gong, Yeming & Liu, Wenbin, 2022. "A data envelopment analysis model integrated with portfolio theory for energy mix adjustment: Evidence in the power industry," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    28. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2020. "The Capital Flight From India: A Case Of Missing Woods For Trees?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 365-383, March.
    29. Pastor, Manuel Jr., 1990. "Capital flight from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
    30. Ximei Zeng & Zhongbao Zhou & Yeming Gong & Wenbin Liu, 2022. "A data envelopment analysis model integrated with portfolio theory for energy mix adjustment : Evidence in the power industry," Post-Print hal-04325619, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simplice A. Asongu & Rexon T. Nting & Evans S. Osabuohien, 2019. "One Bad Turn Deserves Another: How Terrorism Sustains the Addiction to Capital Flight in Africa," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 501-535, September.
    2. Farina Khan & Kashif Abbass & Wu Qun & Muhammad Asif, 2024. "Investigating capital flight in South Asian countries: The dual influence of terrorism and corruption," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(3), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Sebri, Maamar & Dachraoui, Hajer, 2020. "Resources bless BRICS," MPRA Paper 100423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Asongu, Simplice A. & Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph, 2018. "Mitigating capital flight through military expenditure: Insight from 37 African countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 38-53.
    5. Heydari, Hassan & Jariani, Farzaneh, 2020. "Analyzing Effective Factors of Capital Outflow from the Middle East and North African Countries (MENA)," MPRA Paper 104547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sini, Snow & Abdul-Rahim, A.S. & Chin, Lee & Said, Rusmawati & Sulaiman, Chindo, 2022. "Natural resources’ impact on capital flow and conflict relationship in Africa: A novel insight from GMM and quantile regression," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Wu, Bao & Wang, Qi & Fang, Chevy-Hanqing & Tsai, Fu-Sheng & Xia, Yuanze, 2022. "Capital flight for family? Exploring the moderating effects of social connections on capital outflow of family business," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Lionel Effiom & Emmanuel Uche & Otei Asuquo Otei, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of capital flight on domestic investment in Nigeria: evidence from non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(10), pages 1-23, October.
    9. Hajer Dachraoui & Maamar Sebri & Mahmoud M. A. Dwedar, 2021. "Natural Resources and Illicit Financial Flows from BRICS Countries," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13, March.
    10. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S. Hiremath, 2017. "The Capital Flight From India: A Case Of Missing Woods For Trees?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(02), pages 365-383, January.
    11. Mercy W. Mwangi & Amos G. Njuguna & George O. Achoki, 2019. "Relationship between corruption and capital flight in Kenya: 1998-2018," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 8(5), pages 237-250, September.
    12. Simplice Asongu & Joseph Amankwah-Amoah, 2016. "Military expenditure, terrorism and capital flight: Insights from Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 16/018, African Governance and Development Institute..
    13. Hajer Dachraoui & Mounir Smida & Maamar Sebri, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 15-33.
    14. Yacouba Kassouri, 2024. "Capital flight and public health outcomes in Africa," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 576-593, March.
    15. Avom, Désiré & Wendja Simo, Estelle Saraï & Mignamissi, Dieudonné, 2025. "Does illicit capital flight affect the level of economic complexity in developing countries?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    16. Francois Xavier Ngah Obama & Hans Tino Mpenya Ayamena & Francis Baye Menjo, 2026. "Fragile state and capital flight in Africa," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1-33, May.
    17. Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea & Pegdéwendé Nestor Sawadogo, 2019. "Assessing the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-02019073, HAL.
    18. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Governance, capital flight and industrialisation in Africa," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    19. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
    20. Adewale Rafiu Aregbeshola & Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle, 2025. "Episode of Foreign Direct Investment Reversal—The Role of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 1-25, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:16:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s13132-024-02462-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.