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Do high interest rates stem capital outflows?

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  • Michael R. Pakko

Abstract

Conventional wisdom posits that high interest rates stem capital flight and currency depreciation. Some have argued, however that the standard prescription exacerbates the problems. This paper set out a framework for evaluating the conditions under which an increase in domestic interest rates fails to reverse capital outflow. The possibility that high domestic interest rates might have unorthodox effects arises through a risk premium: If raising interest rates increases the possibility associated with default, the result can be a worsening of the country's capital account position.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael R. Pakko, 1999. "Do high interest rates stem capital outflows?," Working Papers 1999-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1999-002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    2. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Market-Based Debt-Reduction Schemes," NBER Working Papers 2587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael Bruno & Stanley Fischer, 1990. "Seigniorage, Operating Rules, and the High Inflation Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 353-374.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferreira, Alex Luiz & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2007. "Does the real interest parity hypothesis hold? Evidence for developed and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 364-382, April.
    2. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Chan Tze Haw, 2009. "The Real Interest Rate Differential: International Evidence Based On Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 83-94, January.
    3. Rosaria Rita canale & Ugo Marani, 2012. "Current account and fiscal imbalances in the Euro-area: Siamese twins in an asymmetrical currency union," Department of Economics University of Siena 659, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    4. Staffan Ringbom, 2003. "Narrow Target Zones within Broad Zones: A Non-Speculative Exchange Rate Solution with Limited Resources," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 319-341, July.
    5. Salomon Marcelo F., 2001. "The Inflationary Consequences of Fiscal Policy In Brazil: An Empirical Investigation with Regime Switches and Time-Varying Probabilities," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, April.
    6. Rosaria Canale & Ugo Marani, 2015. "Current account and fiscal imbalances in the Eurozone: Siamese twins in an asymmetrical currency union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 189-203, June.
    7. Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro & Bautista, Carlos C., 2005. "Monetary policy and exchange market pressure: The case of the Philippines," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 153-168, March.

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    Keywords

    Capital movements ; Interest rates;

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