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Technological change and the U.S. real interest rate

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  • Constantine Alexandrakis

Abstract

Economic theory predicts that the rate of technological growth exerts a positive influence on the real rate of interest. To test this hypothesis, I examine the relationship between the inflation-adjusted yield of the 90-day Treasury-Bill and two measures of innovation: the rate of growth of the stock of patents per worker and R&D spending relative to GDP. As theory predicts, from 1963 to 2008 the rate of interest responds positively to an increase in either measure. The point-estimates imply an elasticity of intertemporal substitution between one and two. The findings suggest that a change in the stance of monetary policy and a wave of innovation both contributed to the rise of real interest rates in the 1980s. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Constantine Alexandrakis, 2014. "Technological change and the U.S. real interest rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 672-686, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:38:y:2014:i:4:p:672-686
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-012-9246-7
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    R&D; Patents; Real interest rate; Technological change; E43; O33; O47;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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