A queueing theory description of fat-tailed price returns in imperfect financial markets
In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of price thresholds to simulate agent behavior over much longer timescales than are currently used in models of order-books. We show that many phenomena, routinely ignored in efficient market theory, can be systematically introduced into an otherwise efficient market, resulting in models that robustly replicate the most important stylized facts. We then demonstrate a close link between such threshold models and queueing theory, with large price changes corresponding to the busy periods of a single-server queue. The distribution of the busy periods is known to have excess kurtosis and non-exponential decay under various assumptions on the queue parameters. Such an approach may prove useful in the development of mathematical models for rapid deleveraging and panics in financial markets, and the stress-testing of financial institutions. Copyright EDP Sciences, SIF, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 77 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10051|
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael, 2008.
"Should Network Structure Matter in Agent-Based Finance?,"
Economics Working Papers
2008,04, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Michael Milakovic & Simone Alfarano, 2007. "Should Network Structure Matter in Agent-Based Finance?," Working Papers wp07-02, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurphb:v:77:y:2010:i:2:p:297-304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)or (Christopher F Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.