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Predictive analysis of concealed social network activities based on communication technology choices: early-warning detection of attack signals from terrorist organizations

Author

Listed:
  • Katya Drozdova

    (Hoover Institution, and NSI)

  • Michael Samoilov

    (University of California)

Abstract

Terrorist threat prevention and counteraction require timely detection of hostile plans. However, adversary efforts at concealment and other challenges involved in monitoring terrorist organizations may impede timely intelligence acquisition or interpretation. This study develops an approach to analyzing technological means rather than content of communications produced within the social networks comprising covert organizations, and shows how it can be applied towards detecting terrorist attack precursors. We find that differential usage patterns of hi-tech versus low-tech communication solutions could reveal significant information about organizational activities, which may be further used to detect signals of impending terrorist attacks. (Such potential practical utility of our method is supported by the detailed empirical analysis of available al Qaeda communications.) The described approach thus provides a common framework for utilizing diverse activity records from heterogeneous sources as well as contributes new tools for their rapid analysis aimed at better informing operational and policy decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Katya Drozdova & Michael Samoilov, 2010. "Predictive analysis of concealed social network activities based on communication technology choices: early-warning detection of attack signals from terrorist organizations," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 61-88, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comaot:v:16:y:2010:i:1:d:10.1007_s10588-009-9058-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10588-009-9058-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roger L. M. Dunbar & William H. Starbuck, 2006. "Learning to Design Organizations and Learning from Designing Them," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 171-178, April.
    2. Eli Berman & Jacob N. Shapiro & Joseph H. Felter, 2011. "Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(4), pages 766-819.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivano Bongiovanni & Cameron Newton, 2019. "Toward an Epidemiology of Safety and Security Risks: An Organizational Vulnerability Assessment in International Airports," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1281-1297, June.
    2. Torsten Reimer & Nathanael Johnson, 2023. "When Those With Privacy Concerns Show Stronger In-Group Favoritism: Using Personal Information From In-Group and Out-Group Members to Identify Terrorist Threats," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, July.
    3. Vito D'Orazio & James E Yonamine, 2015. "Kickoff to Conflict: A Sequence Analysis of Intra-State Conflict-Preceding Event Structures," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, May.

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