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Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan’s Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent A. Floreani
  • Gladys López-Acevedo
  • Martín Rama

Abstract

Despite record economic growth in the decade that followed the fall of the Taliban regime, poverty remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, declining substantially only in regions that suffered more from conflict. This paper aims to explain this apparent puzzle by combining conflict-related indicators at the province level with household level observations. Estimates, which start in 2007 and stop in 2014 because of data availability constraints, show that large troop deployments reduced conflict intensity but also boosted local consumption, an effect reinforced by foreign aid flows being larger in conflict-affected areas. The robustness of these findings is assessed through an out-of-sample simulation of the impact of declining international troops and foreign aid after 2014. The simulation accurately predicts the sharp deterioration in living standards uncovered by a 2016 household survey.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent A. Floreani & Gladys López-Acevedo & Martín Rama, 2021. "Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan’s Transition," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 1776-1790, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:57:y:2021:i:10:p:1776-1790
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2021.1945040
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    Cited by:

    1. Barlas, Ahmad Walid & Sadiq, Mohammad Ehsan & Haidari, Ajmal, 2022. "Determinants of Poverty among Urban Households in Afghanistan: Case study of Mazar-e-Sharif," MPRA Paper 114182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lindsey C. Espino & Crystal Mae Q. Layese & Ken Steven S. Quindao & Ivy Rose S. Jabagat, 2025. "Poverty Alleviation Policies: From the Lens of Barangay Officials in Davao City," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(9), pages 1877-1902, September.
    3. Galdo Virgilio & Acevedo Gladys Lopez & Rama Martin, 2021. "Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Barrett, Philip, 2022. "The fiscal cost of conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005–2017," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    5. McCandless, Erin, 2025. "Inclusion and social contracts in Tunisia: Navigating the complexities of political and socio-economic transformation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Mr. Philip Barrett, 2018. "The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016," IMF Working Papers 2018/204, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gerson Jaquin Cristancho Triana, 2023. "Actitud e intención hacia el consumo responsable en los hogares de Bogotá," Revista Tendencias, Universidad de Narino, vol. 24(1), pages 130-154.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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