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Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Floreani,Vincent Arthur
  • Lopez-Acevedo,Gladys C.
  • Rama,Martin G.

Abstract

Despite record economic growth for more than a decade, poverty has remained stubbornly high in Afghanistan, especially in the regions that suffered less from conflict. This paper aims to explain this paradox by combining a model of conflict intensity at the province level over period 2007-14 with a model of consumption at the household level in 2011. Provincial data show that higher levels of conflict were positively correlated with both a larger presence of troops (international and Afghan) and larger aid flows. Household data show that the negative impact of conflict on consumption was more than offset by the positive impact of aid and troops. According to the estimates, Afghan troops contributed more to poverty reduction than international troops, possibly because they spent more locally. The paper uses the estimated models to conduct an out-of-sample validation exercise, focusing on the transition initiated in 2014. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the quantitative models cannot account for strategic shifts in the insurgency and watershed political developments. But they suggest that the reduction in the number of international troops and declining foreign aid flows led to an increase in conflict intensity and a decline in consumption per capita, matching current trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Floreani,Vincent Arthur & Lopez-Acevedo,Gladys C. & Rama,Martin G., 2016. "Conflict and Poverty in Afghanistan's Transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7864, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7864
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barlas, Ahmad Walid & Sadiq, Mohammad Ehsan & Haidari, Ajmal, 2022. "Determinants of Poverty among Urban Households in Afghanistan: Case study of Mazar-e-Sharif," MPRA Paper 114182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Galdo Virgilio & Acevedo Gladys Lopez & Rama Martin, 2021. "Conflict and the composition of economic activity in Afghanistan," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Lindsey C. Espino & Crystal Mae Q. Layese & Ken Steven S. Quindao & Ivy Rose S. Jabagat, 2025. "Poverty Alleviation Policies: From the Lens of Barangay Officials in Davao City," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(9), pages 1877-1902, September.
    4. Barrett, Philip, 2022. "The fiscal cost of conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005–2017," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    5. McCandless, Erin, 2025. "Inclusion and social contracts in Tunisia: Navigating the complexities of political and socio-economic transformation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    6. Mr. Philip Barrett, 2018. "The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016," IMF Working Papers 2018/204, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Gerson Jaquin Cristancho Triana, 2023. "Actitud e intención hacia el consumo responsable en los hogares de Bogotá," Revista Tendencias, Universidad de Narino, vol. 24(1), pages 130-154.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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