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A Replication of “Counting Chickens When They Hatch†(Economic Journal 2012)*

* This paper is a replication of an original study


  • David Roodman

    (Independent policy consultant, Washington, DC, USA)


Clemens, Radelet, Bhavnani, and Bazzi (CRBB) argue that the most-cited cross-country studies of the impact of foreign aid can be reconciled if changed in certain ways. The shared finding is then, in the CRBB view, that more aid is followed on average by more growth. I exactly replicate the estimation results of CRBB and then question these results with additional specifications and tests. One CRBB step, restricting the aid variable to assistance most likely to affect growth in the short run, does not make much difference. Two other changes—lagging the aid variables and differencing the data to remove fixed effects—fail to remove contemporaneous endogeneity. Addressing this issue produces evidence of zero or negative Granger causation from aid/(gross domestic product) to growth. And the regressions embodying all of CRBB’s changes do not peg the impact of aid as statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • David Roodman, 2015. "A Replication of “Counting Chickens When They Hatch†(Economic Journal 2012)," Public Finance Review, , vol. 43(2), pages 256-281, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:43:y:2015:i:2:p:256-281

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    Cited by:

    1. Mary, Sébastien & Saravia-Matus, Silvia & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2018. "Does nutrition-sensitive aid reduce the prevalence of undernourishment?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 100-116.
    2. Ouyang, Yusi & Shimeles, Abebe & Thorbecke, Erik, 2019. "Revisiting cross-country poverty convergence in the developing world with a special focus on Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 13-28.
    3. Fuchs, Andreas & Dreher, Axel & Hodler, Roland & Parks, Bradley C. & Raschky, Paul, 2015. "Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China s Foreign Assistance," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112838, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Fuchs, Andreas & Richert, Katharina, 2018. "Development Minister Characteristics and Aid Giving," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 186-204.
    5. Gehring, Kai & Michaelowa, Katharina & Dreher, Axel & Spörri, Franziska, 2017. "Aid Fragmentation and Effectiveness: What Do We Really Know?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 320-334.


    This item is a replication of:
  • Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil R. Bhavnani & Samuel Bazzi, 2012. "Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 590-617, June.
  • More about this item


    foreign assistance; cross-country growth regressions; replication;
    All these keywords.


    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. A Replication of “Counting Chickens When They Hatch” (PFR 2015) in ReplicationWiki


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