IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/pubfin/v43y2015i2p256-281.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Replication of “Counting Chickens When They Hatch†(Economic Journal 2012)*

* This paper is a replication of an original study

Author

Listed:
  • David Roodman

Abstract

Clemens, Radelet, Bhavnani, and Bazzi (CRBB) argue that the most-cited cross-country studies of the impact of foreign aid can be reconciled if changed in certain ways. The shared finding is then, in the CRBB view, that more aid is followed on average by more growth. I exactly replicate the estimation results of CRBB and then question these results with additional specifications and tests. One CRBB step, restricting the aid variable to assistance most likely to affect growth in the short run, does not make much difference. Two other changes—lagging the aid variables and differencing the data to remove fixed effects—fail to remove contemporaneous endogeneity. Addressing this issue produces evidence of zero or negative Granger causation from aid/(gross domestic product) to growth. And the regressions embodying all of CRBB’s changes do not peg the impact of aid as statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • David Roodman, 2015. "A Replication of “Counting Chickens When They Hatch†(Economic Journal 2012)," Public Finance Review, , vol. 43(2), pages 256-281, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:43:y:2015:i:2:p:256-281
    DOI: 10.1177/1091142114537895
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1091142114537895
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1091142114537895?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler & Jonathan Temple, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Papers 2001-W21, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2005. "Borders and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 331-386, December.
    3. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2006. "Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 97-126, July.
    4. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
    5. Angrist, Joshua D. & Krueger, Alan B., 1999. "Empirical strategies in labor economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1277-1366, Elsevier.
    6. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil R. Bhavnani & Samuel Bazzi, 2012. "Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 590-617, June.
    7. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    8. Michael Clemens & Samuel Bazzi, 2009. "Blunt Instruments: On Establishing the Causes of Economic Growth," Working Papers 171, Center for Global Development.
    9. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    10. Stephen R. Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 1(2), pages 141-162, August.
    11. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    12. Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil Bhavnani, 2004. "Counting chickens when they hatch: The short-term effect of aid on growth," International Finance 0407010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Stephen Bond & Anke Hoeffler, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W21, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    15. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
    16. Stephen Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    17. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    18. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    19. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    20. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mary, Sébastien & Saravia-Matus, Silvia & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2018. "Does nutrition-sensitive aid reduce the prevalence of undernourishment?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 100-116.
    2. Ouyang, Yusi & Shimeles, Abebe & Thorbecke, Erik, 2019. "Revisiting cross-country poverty convergence in the developing world with a special focus on Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 13-28.
    3. Fuchs, Andreas & Richert, Katharina, 2018. "Development minister characteristics and aid giving," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 186-204.
    4. Dreher, Axel & Hodler, Roland & Fuchs, Andreas & Parks, Bradley C. & Raschky, Paul & Tierney, Michael, 2015. "Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China's Foreign Assistance," CEPR Discussion Papers 10704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Gehring, Kai & Michaelowa, Katharina & Dreher, Axel & Spörri, Franziska, 2017. "Aid Fragmentation and Effectiveness: What Do We Really Know?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 320-334.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    2. Coviello, Decio & Islam, Roumeen, 2006. "Does aid help improve economic institutions ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3990, The World Bank.
    3. Abonazel, Mohamed R., 2016. "Bias Correction Methods for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," MPRA Paper 70628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," EconStor Preprints 242848, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Martin Andersson & Hans Lööf, 2011. "Agglomeration and productivity: evidence from firm-level data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 46(3), pages 601-620, June.
    6. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    7. Ilina Srour & Erol Taymaz & Marco Vivarelli, 2014. "Globalization, Technology and Skills: Evidence from Turkish Longitudinal Microdata," ERC Working Papers 1405, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jun 2014.
    8. Elena Meschi & Erol Taymaz & Marco Vivarelli, 2016. "Globalization, technological change and labor demand: a firm-level analysis for Turkey," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(4), pages 655-680, November.
    9. Montmartin, Benjamin & Herrera, Marcos, 2015. "Internal and external effects of R&D subsidies and fiscal incentives: Empirical evidence using spatial dynamic panel models," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1065-1079.
    10. Xuepeng Liu, 2016. "Trade Agreements and Economic Growth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(4), pages 1374-1401, April.
    11. Dong, Kangyin & Jiang, Qingzhe & Liu, Yang & Shen, Zhiyang & Vardanyan, Michael, 2024. "Is energy aid allocated fairly? A global energy vulnerability perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Fagiolo, Giorgio & Santoni, Gianluca, 2015. "Human-mobility networks, country income, and labor productivity," Network Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 377-407, September.
    13. Ilina Srour & Marco Vivarelli & Erol Taymaz, 2013. "Technological Change and Skill-based Employment Disparities: Evidence from Turkey," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1393, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    14. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the utilization of non-reciprocal trade preferences offered by the QUAD countries on beneficiary countries' economic complexity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Srour, Ilina & Taymaz, Erol & Vivarelli, Marco, 2013. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and Skill-Enhancing Trade in Turkey: Evidence from Longitudinal Microdata," IZA Discussion Papers 7320, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Eicher, Theo S. & Schreiber, Till, 2010. "Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 169-179, January.
    17. Benjamin Jung, 2009. "Adjustment Dynamics of Bilateral Trade Flows: Theory and Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(IV), pages 421-442, December.
    18. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Duration of membership in the world trade organization and investment-oriented remittances inflows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    19. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.

    Replication

    This item is a replication of:
  • Michael A. Clemens & Steven Radelet & Rikhil R. Bhavnani & Samuel Bazzi, 2012. "Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 590-617, June.

    • More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign assistance; cross-country growth regressions; replication;
    All these keywords.

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. A Replication of “Counting Chickens When They Hatch” (PFR 2015) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:43:y:2015:i:2:p:256-281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.