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Accounting for Spatial Error Correlation in the 2004 Presidential Popular Vote


  • Donald J. Lacombe

    (Ohio University)

  • Timothy M. Shaughnessy

    (LSU in Shreveport)


One problem with describing election vote shares using ordinary least squares (OLS) is that it ignores the possible presence of spatial error correlation, whereby the errors are correlated in a systematic manner over space. This omission can bias OLS standard errors. We examine the 2004 presidential county vote outcome using OLS and a spatial error model (SEM) that accounts for spatial autocorrelation in the error structure. We find that spatial error correlation is present, that the SEM is superior to OLS for making inferences, and that several factors deemed important to the 2004 election outcome are not significant once the spatial error autocorrelation is taken into account.

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  • Donald J. Lacombe & Timothy M. Shaughnessy, 2007. "Accounting for Spatial Error Correlation in the 2004 Presidential Popular Vote," Public Finance Review, , vol. 35(4), pages 480-499, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:35:y:2007:i:4:p:480-499

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    Cited by:

    1. Le, Canh Quang & Li, Dong, 2008. "Double-Length Regression tests for testing functional forms and spatial error dependence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 253-257, December.
    2. repec:spr:anresc:v:60:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s00168-015-0705-x is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Burnett, Wesley & Lacombe, Donald J., 2012. "Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in the 2004 Presidential Popular Vote: A Reassessment of the Evidence," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 75-89, Spring.
    4. Robert Lawson & Todd Nesbit, 2013. "Alchian and Allen Revisited: Law Enforcement and the Price of Weed," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 363-370, December.


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