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Modeling the Defense-Growth Relationship around the Globe

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  • Uk Heo

    (Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

Abstract

One of the most important questions stemming from the end of the cold war is how reductions in defense spending will affect economic performance. This question has significant policy implications for countries facing public demands for defense cutbacks and countries still maintaining high levels of military spending for security. However, previous studies on the defense-growth relationship have reported mixed findings. Thus, this study investigates how the changes in defense burden will affect economic growth by testing the economic effects of defense spending on growth in 80 countries using a nonlinear defense-growth model that includes technological progress. The results reveal that two thirds of the countries under investigation may expect a “peace dividend†due to the negative relationship between defense spending and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Uk Heo, 1998. "Modeling the Defense-Growth Relationship around the Globe," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(5), pages 637-657, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:42:y:1998:i:5:p:637-657
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002798042005006
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerhard Reitschuler & Ludger J. Löning, 2004. "Modeling the Defense-Growth Nexus in a Post-Conflict Country - A Piecewise Linear Approach," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 097, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Bragoudakis Zacharias G. & Zombanakis George A., 2017. "Earning a Peace Dividend in a Crisis Environment: The Greek Case," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Albert J.F. Yang & William N. Trumbull & Chin Wei Yang & Bwo‐Nung Huang, 2011. "On The Relationship Between Military Expenditure, Threat, And Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 449-457, April.
    4. Jeffrey Smith & M. H. Tuttle, 2008. "Does Defense Spending Really Promote Aggregate Output In The United States?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 435-447.
    5. Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2016. "Military expenditures, economic growth and spatial spillovers," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 87-104, February.
    6. Katarina Keller & Panu Poutvaara & Andreas Wagener, 2009. "Military Draft And Economic Growth In Oecd Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 373-393, October.
    7. Chien-Chiang Lee & Sheng-Tung Chen, 2007. "Non-Linearity In The Defence Expenditure - Economic Growth Relationship In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 537-555.
    8. Thomas Bernauer & Vally Koubi & Fabio Ernst, 2009. "National and Regional Economic Consequences of Swiss Defense Spending," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(4), pages 467-484, July.
    9. Christos Kollias & Suzanna‐Maria Paleologou, 2010. "Growth, investment and military expenditure in the European Union‐15," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(2), pages 228-240, May.
    10. Shin-Jen Tzeng & Ching-Chong Lai & Chun-Chieh Huang, 2008. "Does Military Expenditure Matter For Inflation And Economic Growth?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 471-478.
    11. Chang, Hsin-Chen & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin Wei, 2011. "Military expenditure and economic growth across different groups: A dynamic panel Granger-causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2416-2423.
    12. Uk Heo & John Bohte, 2012. "Who Pays for National Defense? Financing Defense Programs in the United States, 1947–2007," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 56(3), pages 413-438, June.
    13. Ahad, Muhammad & Dar, Adeel Ahmad, 2017. "Modeling the Asymmetric Impact of Defense Spending on Economic Growth: An Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL and Multipliers," MPRA Paper 80085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    14. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Baljeet Singh, 2007. "Modelling The Relationship Between Defense Spending And Economic Growth For The Fiji Islands," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 391-401.
    15. G. Jones & T. Kane, 2012. "U.S. Troops and Foreign Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 225-249, June.
    16. Tausch, Arno, 2016. "‘Smart development’. An essay on a new political economy of the environment," MPRA Paper 70204, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2011. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Conflict: Three Case Studies," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Renaud Bellais & Martial Foucault & Jean-Michel Oudot, 2014. "Économie de la défense," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01052607, HAL.
    19. Tausch, Arno, 2011. "The ‘four economic freedoms’ and life quality. General tendencies and some hard lessons for EU-27-Europe," MPRA Paper 33225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Uk Heo & Min Ye, 2016. "Defense Spending and Economic Growth around the Globe: The Direct and Indirect Link," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 774-796, October.

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