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Does Defense Spending Really Promote Aggregate Output In The United States?

Listed author(s):
  • Jeffrey Smith
  • M. H. Tuttle

Many studies have examined the relationship between defense spending and growth in real aggregate output with mixed results. Most recently, Atesoglu (2002) finds a positive relationship between defense spending and output. Capturing the error correction term as the long run adjustment parameter and including the long run adjustment in the relationship, we do not find evidence that defense spending promotes growth in real output. Instead, defense spending responds to aggregate income shocks. We re-estimated the relationship and dummied all US military conflicts with similar results concerning military spending's effect on output. Interestingly, we find trade-offs between defense and non-defense government spending during war time.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10242690701701950
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Defence and Peace Economics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 435-447

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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:19:y:2008:i:6:p:435-447
DOI: 10.1080/10242690701701950
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March.
  2. Uk Heo, 1998. "Modeling the Defense-Growth Relationship around the Globe," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(5), pages 637-657, October.
  3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
  4. H. Sonmez Atesoglu, 2002. "Defense Spending Promotes Aggregate Output in the United States--Evidence from Cointegration Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 55-60.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  6. Lau, Sau-Him Paul & Sin, Chor-Yiu, 1997. "Public Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Time-Series Properties and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(221), pages 125-135, June.
  7. Erdal Karagol & Serap Palaz, 2004. "Does defence expenditure deter economic growth in Turkey? A cointegration analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 289-298.
  8. J. Paul Dunne & Ron Smith & Dirk Willenbockel, 2005. "Models Of Military Expenditure And Growth: A Critical Review," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 449-461.
  9. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287, December.
  10. Newman Kwadwo Kusi, 1994. "Economic Growth and Defense Spending in Developing Countries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 38(1), pages 152-159, March.
  11. Rock-Antoine Mehanna, 2004. "An Econometric Contribution to the U.S. Defense—Growth Nexus: Evidence from Error Correction Model," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(2), pages 121-131, April.
  12. Brumm, Harold J., 1997. "Military Spending, Government Disarray, and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 827-838, October.
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