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Forecasting Foreign Economic Relations


  • Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL

    („Artifex" University of Bucharest)

  • Constantin ANGHELACHE

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies/„Artifex" University of Bucharest)

  • Florin Paul Costel LILEA

    („Artifex” University of Bucharest)

  • Alexandru BADIU

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)


We know that the development of a country’s economy, given that autarkic development can no longer perform mostly depends on that country’s participation in international trade in goods, services and cooperation. It is obvious that a country exports means ascendancy in that provides additional goods then assessed value that is realized in the country and exported. Therefore, the export is an active factor to improve the economic outcomes (macro) over a period of time. Imports in turn, represent another segment of economic exchange of goods and international services in countries concerned to balance the need for resources and assets to strengthen its production resorting to imports. From this point of view, imports play a positive role even if it means the results of domestic consumption to ensure imports because when imports development, improve the potential economy. This activity has a negative role, given that a number of the country’s resources, resulting in financial value is used to import just not necessary. Thus, a country that is producing goods and services, for reasons of market data free of production efficiency or other elements that are considering resort to imports. The best example is the import of agricultural products, especially when the country in question is capable of producing the same kind of products. In the EU of 27 (28) states practice under Directive free movement of goods and services the opportunity to buy (no longer comes into the European Union), based on market relations. This creates great difficulties states have the potential to produce, to restrict their activities in this way to become a country with deficit of foreign trade or international pate not cause anything other than the external debtThat is why, in this situation, it is important that the macroeconomic, microeconomic applies, to leave the forecasting perspective of international economic activity, ie, imports and exports. In this view, the authors of this article is to determine or trend of a country’s external economic relations, especially to establish models and forecasting techniques by which this can be achieved. Using a mathematical establishing correlations that exist between the determined import-export can reach some conclusions beneficial decisions being taken in macroeconomic management. Mathematical models are presented in forecasting the economic and economic, setting the correlation function matrix designs that can provide concrete analyzable. Also, the authors focus on the fact that you can use gravity model designed by taking into account the level of economic development and economic distance between partners in terms of exporting and importing countries. In this context, we emphasize that Romania does not know any period within which to balance the foreign trade balance surplus. Always this balance was poor. The authors make some models that can be used in forecasting international economic relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Constantin ANGHELACHE & Florin Paul Costel LILEA & Alexandru BADIU, 2017. "Forecasting Foreign Economic Relations," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 47-55, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:4:p:47-55

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. De Paoli, Bianca, 2009. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 11-22, February.
    2. Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "Foreign currency debt and the global financial architecture," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 719-727, May.
    3. Robert W. Staiger & Alan O. Sykes, 2011. "International Trade, National Treatment, and Domestic Regulation," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 149-203.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 2000. "How Far Will International Economic Integration Go?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 177-186, Winter.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Cross-Border Spillovers from Fiscal Stimulus," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 5-37, March.
    6. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
    7. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Madalina ANGHEL, 2014. "The Business Environment and the Foreign Investment," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(10), pages 8-15, Octomber.
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