IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rsr/supplm/v65y2017i4p47-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Foreign Economic Relations

Author

Listed:
  • Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL

    („Artifex" University of Bucharest)

  • Constantin ANGHELACHE

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies/„Artifex" University of Bucharest)

  • Florin Paul Costel LILEA

    („Artifex” University of Bucharest)

  • Alexandru BADIU

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

Abstract

We know that the development of a country’s economy, given that autarkic development can no longer perform mostly depends on that country’s participation in international trade in goods, services and cooperation. It is obvious that a country exports means ascendancy in that provides additional goods then assessed value that is realized in the country and exported. Therefore, the export is an active factor to improve the economic outcomes (macro) over a period of time. Imports in turn, represent another segment of economic exchange of goods and international services in countries concerned to balance the need for resources and assets to strengthen its production resorting to imports. From this point of view, imports play a positive role even if it means the results of domestic consumption to ensure imports because when imports development, improve the potential economy. This activity has a negative role, given that a number of the country’s resources, resulting in financial value is used to import just not necessary. Thus, a country that is producing goods and services, for reasons of market data free of production efficiency or other elements that are considering resort to imports. The best example is the import of agricultural products, especially when the country in question is capable of producing the same kind of products. In the EU of 27 (28) states practice under Directive free movement of goods and services the opportunity to buy (no longer comes into the European Union), based on market relations. This creates great difficulties states have the potential to produce, to restrict their activities in this way to become a country with deficit of foreign trade or international pate not cause anything other than the external debtThat is why, in this situation, it is important that the macroeconomic, microeconomic applies, to leave the forecasting perspective of international economic activity, ie, imports and exports. In this view, the authors of this article is to determine or trend of a country’s external economic relations, especially to establish models and forecasting techniques by which this can be achieved. Using a mathematical establishing correlations that exist between the determined import-export can reach some conclusions beneficial decisions being taken in macroeconomic management. Mathematical models are presented in forecasting the economic and economic, setting the correlation function matrix designs that can provide concrete analyzable. Also, the authors focus on the fact that you can use gravity model designed by taking into account the level of economic development and economic distance between partners in terms of exporting and importing countries. In this context, we emphasize that Romania does not know any period within which to balance the foreign trade balance surplus. Always this balance was poor. The authors make some models that can be used in forecasting international economic relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Constantin ANGHELACHE & Florin Paul Costel LILEA & Alexandru BADIU, 2017. "Forecasting Foreign Economic Relations," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(4), pages 47-55, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:4:p:47-55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.revistadestatistica.ro/supliment/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/rrss_04_2017_site_A3_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Paoli, Bianca, 2009. "Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 11-22, February.
    2. Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "Foreign currency debt and the global financial architecture," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 719-727, May.
    3. Robert W. Staiger & Alan O. Sykes, 2011. "International Trade, National Treatment, and Domestic Regulation," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 149-203.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 2000. "How Far Will International Economic Integration Go?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 177-186, Winter.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Cross-Border Spillovers from Fiscal Stimulus," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 5-37, March.
    6. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
    7. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Alexandru MANOLE & Madalina ANGHEL, 2014. "The Business Environment and the Foreign Investment," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(10), pages 8-15, Octomber.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:4:p:47-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Adrian Visoiu). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/stagvro.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.