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Estimate of shadow economy dynamics in Russia and regions: The inflationary aspect


  • Arzhenovskiy, Sergey

    (Southern Main Branch of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation; Rostov State University of Economics;)


The share of the shadow economy in the GDP of Russia and by region — in the GRP of the regions, was estimated in the study, based on quarterly data. The methodology included two approaches — structural modeling and using of the cash demand model. Estimation of consumer price index elasticity factors by the share of shadow economy in GDP/GRP was carried out. Comparison of empirical results of the study with obtained other authors and other methods, both by country and by region, showed their comparability.

Suggested Citation

  • Arzhenovskiy, Sergey, 2023. "Estimate of shadow economy dynamics in Russia and regions: The inflationary aspect," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 69, pages 121-140.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0467

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    shadow economy; Russian region; MIMIC; cash demand approach; inflation and shadow economy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements


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