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Commerce extérieur et disparitions d’entreprises industrielles

  • Hountondji, Guéliffo

    (Latapses/Idefi Cnrs)

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    Studies on industrial demography are traditionally devoted to the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Small business failure rates are, in this respect, related either to management considerations on a microeconomic level, or to financial and policy decisions from a macroeconomic point of view. In both cases, little attention is paid to theoretical explanations and to the specific influence of external trade on this index of industrial performance. The relationship between business failures and international trade seems obvious when holds the traditional assumptions made in the context of price cost margins models, that is to say, price and profit reductions due to import (and export) discipline. Unfortunately, empirical studies provide no unambiguous evidence of these assumptions. L’article se propose d’adapter et d’étendre les modèles de marges sur coûts à l’étude de la démographie des firmes industrielles. Il examine en particulier les rapports entre importations et disparitions d’entreprises, dans le cadre d’une concurrence oligopolistique à prix stables en économie ouverte. Les modèles sont construits directement en économie ouverte et n’intègrent pas la séquence habituelle du passage de l’autarcie aux échanges extérieurs : aucune référence n’est faite par conséquent aux effets de discipline du commerce extérieur. Les firmes exportatrices réagissent aux changements qui interviennent dans leurs performances sur les marchés extérieurs ou dans la pénétration du marché national, par des choix qui peuvent aller d’un effort de différenciation de leur produit (publicité) à une réduction de leurs coûts (diverses formes de relations de sous-traitance) en passant par des mouvements de stockage et de déstockage. Les disparitions de firmes industrielles représentent une des conséquences de ces choix. Les tests économétriques réalisés sur le cas français montrent que seule une catégorie particulière de disparitions d’entreprises (les cessations pures) semble déterminée par le commerce extérieur qui par conséquent n’exercerait pas d’influence significative sur l’ensemble des cessations d’entreprises.

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    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 74 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 2 (juin)
    Pages: 221-244

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:74:y:1998:i:2:p:221-244
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    1. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-45, September.
    2. White, Lawrence J, 1974. "Industrial Organization and International Trade: Some Theoretical Considerations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(6), pages 1013-20, December.
    3. Geroski, P. A., 1982. "Simultaneous equations models of the structure-performance paradigm," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 145-158.
    4. Esposito, Louis & Esposito, Frances Ferguson, 1971. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Industry Profitability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 343-53, November.
    5. Rosenbaum, David I., 1993. "Profit, entry and changes in concentration," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 185-203, June.
    6. Frédéric Jenny & André-Paul Weber, 1974. "Taux de profit et variables structurelles dans l'industrie manufacturière française," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 25(6), pages 924-958.
    7. Jean-Luc Bricout, 1991. "Exporter : une question de taille," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 244(1), pages 25-33.
    8. Bernard Baudry, 1993. "Partenariat et sous-traitance : une approche par la théorie des incitations," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 66(1), pages 51-68.
    9. de Melo, Jaime & Urata, Shujiro, 1986. "The influence of increased foreign competition on industrial concentration and profitability," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 287-304, September.
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