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Inflation Targets Regime and global financial cycle: An assessment for the Brazilian economy

Author

Listed:
  • Elisangela Luzia Araujo,

    (State University of Maring)

  • Eliane Cristina de Araujo

    (State University of Maring)

  • Mateus Ramalho da Fonseca

    (Faculty of Maring)

  • Pedro Perfeito da Silva

    (Central European University)

Abstract

In light of the global financial cycle (GFC), this paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy in Brazil since the adoption of the inflation targeting regime. The theoretical section analyses monetary policy from the New Macroeconomic Consensus perspective, emphasizing the implications of the GFC. It also contrasts central bank theory with the post-Keynesian critique. For the empirical investigation, a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model is estimated from January 2000 to December 2017, combining the common variables from the empirical literature with the proxy for the GFC. The main results suggest that greater financial instability has a direct effect on domestic inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisangela Luzia Araujo, & Eliane Cristina de Araujo & Mateus Ramalho da Fonseca & Pedro Perfeito da Silva, 2020. "Inflation Targets Regime and global financial cycle: An assessment for the Brazilian economy," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(292), pages 27-49.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:pslqrr:2020:12
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudio Borio & Harold James & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: a capital account historical perspective," Globalization Institute Working Papers 204, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Malcolm Sawyer, 2006. "Inflation targeting and central bank independence: we are all Keynesians now! or are we?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 639-652.
    3. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    4. Christopher A Hartwell, 2019. "On the impossibility of central bank independence: four decades of time- (and intellectual) inconsistency," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(1), pages 61-84.
    5. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    6. Koop, Gary, 1992. "'Objective' Bayesian Unit Root Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 65-82, Jan.-Marc.
    7. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: its Achilles heel and what to do about it," Globalization Institute Working Papers 203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
    9. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emerson Abraham JACKSON & Mohamed JABBİE & Edmund TAMUKE & Augustine NGOMBU, 2020. "Adoption of Inflation Targeting in Sierra Leone: An Empirical Discourse," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 21-50, July.
    2. Elisangela Araujo & Eliane de Araújo & Mateus Ribeiro da Fonseca & Paulo Mourão, 2023. "External shocks and monetary policy under the inflation targeting regime (ITR): an analysis of the determinants of inflation for the period 2000-2021," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(306), pages 293-311.

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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