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Sur la macroéconomie de l'incertitude et des marchés incomplets

Listed author(s):
  • Jacques H. Drèze

[eng] Presidential address for the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic Association, summarising semi-formally the author's recent work and concerns. Uncertainty and incomplete markets breed demand volatility as well as price and wage rigidities. The conjunction of these leads to multiple, volatile supply-constrained equilibria, typically reflecting coordination failures and apt to display persistence — as documented by three supporting theorems. Specifie implications are linked to the conclusions that we should take coordination failures seriously, try to obviate demand volatility and try to by-pass price and wage rigidities. JEL Codes : B4, D52 [fre] Ce texte est la version écrite du discours présidentiel au douzième congrès mondial de l'Association internationale des sciences économiques, résumant les travaux récents de l'auteur et ses sujets d'intérêt de manière semi-formelle. Incertitude et marchés incomplets génèrent une volatilité de la demande ainsi que des rigidités de salaires et de prix. La conjonction de ces deux aspects conduit à des équilibres avec excès d'offre, multiples et volatils, reflétant typiquement des insuffisances de coordination, et susceptibles de persister — comme le confirment trois théorèmes. En conclusion, il apparaît d'une part que nous ne pouvons ignorer les problèmes de coordination; nous devons d'autre part essayer de remédier à la volatilité de la demande et de contourner les rigidités de prix et de salaires, par des mesures spécifiques.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ofce.2000.1568
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File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_2000_num_72_1_1568
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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 72 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 7-37

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_2000_num_72_1_1568
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.2000.1568
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce

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  1. DREZE, Jacques H. & HERINGS, P. Jean-Jacques, 1998. "Continua of underemployment equilibria," CORE Discussion Papers 1998045, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114.
  3. Dreze, Jacques H. & Gollier, Christian, 1993. "Risk sharing on the labour market and second-best wage rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1457-1482, December.
  4. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
  5. Dreze, Jacques H. & Modigliani, Franco, 1972. "Consumption decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 308-335, December.
  6. Dreze, Jacques H. & Malinvaud, Edmond, 1994. "Growth and employment: The scope of a European initiative," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 489-504, April.
  7. Greenwald, Bruce C & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Asymmetric Information and the New Theory of the Firm: Financial Constraints and Risk Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 160-165, May.
  8. Champsaur, Paul & Dreze, Jacques H & Henry, Claude, 1977. "Stability Theorems with Economic Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 273-294, March.
  9. Oswald, Andrew J, 1985. " The Economic Theory of Trade Unions: An Introductory Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 160-193.
  10. Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-463.
  11. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
  12. Pencavel, John, 1985. " Wages and Employment under Trade Unionism: Microeconomic Models and Macroeconomic Applications," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 197-225.
  13. Rosen, Sherwin, 1985. "Implicit Contracts: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 1144-1175, September.
  14. Roberts, John, 1987. "An Equilibrium Model with Involuntary Unemployment at Flexible, Competitive Prices and Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 856-874, December.
  15. Hahn, F., 1992. "A Remark on Incomplete Market Equilibrium," Papers 179, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
  16. Paul M. Sweezy, 1939. "Demand Under Conditions of Oligopoly," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47, pages 568-568.
  17. Bean, Charles R, 1984. "Optimal Wage Bargains," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 51(202), pages 141-149, May.
  18. Martin Neil Baily, 1974. "Wages and Employment under Uncertain Demand," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 37-50.
  19. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1989. " Keynesian Issues and Economic Theory," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(2), pages 265-293.
  20. Radner, Roy, 1972. "Existence of Equilibrium of Plans, Prices, and Price Expectations in a Sequence of Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 289-303, March.
  21. Azariadis, Costas, 1975. "Implicit Contracts and Underemployment Equilibria," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1183-1202, December.
  22. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
  23. Assar Lindbeck, 1993. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121751, September.
  24. van der Laan, Gerard, 1984. "Supply-constrained fixed price equilibria in monetary economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 171-187, October.
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