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Sur la macroéconomie de l'incertitude et des marchés incomplets

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  • Jacques H. Drèze

Abstract

[eng] Presidential address for the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic Association, summarising semi-formally the author's recent work and concerns. Uncertainty and incomplete markets breed demand volatility as well as price and wage rigidities. The conjunction of these leads to multiple, volatile supply-constrained equilibria, typically reflecting coordination failures and apt to display persistence — as documented by three supporting theorems. Specifie implications are linked to the conclusions that we should take coordination failures seriously, try to obviate demand volatility and try to by-pass price and wage rigidities.. JEL Codes : B4, D52 [fre] Ce texte est la version écrite du discours présidentiel au douzième congrès mondial de l'Association internationale des sciences économiques, résumant les travaux récents de l'auteur et ses sujets d'intérêt de manière semi-formelle. Incertitude et marchés incomplets génèrent une volatilité de la demande ainsi que des rigidités de salaires et de prix. La conjonction de ces deux aspects conduit à des équilibres avec excès d'offre, multiples et volatils, reflétant typiquement des insuffisances de coordination, et susceptibles de persister — comme le confirment trois théorèmes. En conclusion, il apparaît d'une part que nous ne pouvons ignorer les problèmes de coordination; nous devons d'autre part essayer de remédier à la volatilité de la demande et de contourner les rigidités de prix et de salaires, par des mesures spécifiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques H. Drèze, 2000. "Sur la macroéconomie de l'incertitude et des marchés incomplets," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 72(1), pages 7-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_2000_num_72_1_1568
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.2000.1568
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dreze, Jacques H. & Gollier, Christian, 1993. "Risk sharing on the labour market and second-best wage rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1457-1482, December.
    2. Greenwald, Bruce C & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Asymmetric Information and the New Theory of the Firm: Financial Constraints and Risk Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 160-165, May.
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    4. Oswald, Andrew J, 1985. " The Economic Theory of Trade Unions: An Introductory Survey," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 160-193.
    5. Russell Cooper & Andrew John, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-463.
    6. Pencavel, John, 1985. " Wages and Employment under Trade Unionism: Microeconomic Models and Macroeconomic Applications," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 197-225.
    7. Roberts, John, 1987. "An Equilibrium Model with Involuntary Unemployment at Flexible, Competitive Prices and Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 856-874, December.
    8. Paul M. Sweezy, 1939. "Demand Under Conditions of Oligopoly," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47, pages 568-568.
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    21. Radner, Roy, 1972. "Existence of Equilibrium of Plans, Prices, and Price Expectations in a Sequence of Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 289-303, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets

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