IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlaop/v2014y2014i4id443p16-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Will the Financial Crisis Become a Milestone in the Development of Methodology of Economics?
[Stane se finanční krize milníkem v metodologii ekonomie?]

Author

Listed:
  • Lukáš Kovanda

Abstract

It has been widely accepted that philosophers of science wrote a "swansong" for positivism during the second half of the 20th century. Milton Friedman and Paul Samuelson, major contributors in the field of economic methodology at the time, the argument goes, never reflected the demise. Therefore, positivist roots are still to be found in influential theoretical concepts developed by mainstream economists. Specifically, I present the hypothesis of rational expectations and the theory of efficient markets as two significant outcomes of a "high tide" of positivist thinking in economics. However, quite a large number of scholars currently share the view that the two concepts contributed in a non-negligible manner to the development leading to the financial crisis culminating in 2008 and 2009 and should be replaced by behavioural or other approaches. The article thus asks, in quite a novel way, if the crisis - seen by many as an empirical rejection of both the concepts - can also be seen as a milestone in the development of methodology of economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukáš Kovanda, 2014. "Will the Financial Crisis Become a Milestone in the Development of Methodology of Economics? [Stane se finanční krize milníkem v metodologii ekonomie?]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(4), pages 16-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlaop:v:2014:y:2014:i:4:id:443:p:16-29
    DOI: 10.18267/j.aop.443
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://aop.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.aop.443.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://aop.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.aop.443.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.aop.443?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Howden, 2010. "Knowledge shifts and the business cycle: When boom turns to bust," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 165-182, June.
    2. Laibson, David & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1998. "Amos Tversky and the Ascent of Behavioral Economics," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 7-47, April.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1998. "Applications of Option-Pricing Theory: Twenty-Five Years Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 323-349, June.
    4. Foster, John & Metcalfe, J. Stan, 2012. "Economic emergence: An evolutionary economic perspective," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 420-432.
    5. Yuichi Shionoya, 2005. "The Soul of the German Historical School," The European Heritage in Economics and the Social Sciences, Springer, number 978-0-387-23085-6.
    6. Bezemer, D.J., 2009. "No one saw this coming. Understanding financial crisis through accounting models," Research Report 09002, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    7. Shira B. Lewin, 1996. "Economics and Psychology: Lessons for Our Own Day from the Early Twentieth Century," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1293-1323, September.
    8. James Crotty, 2011. "The Realism of Assumptions Does Matter: Why Keynes-Minsky Theory Must Replace Efficient Market Theory as the Guide to Financial Regulation Policy," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2011-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    9. Peter J. Boettke & Christopher J. Coyne & John Davis & Francesco Guala & Alain Marciano & Jochen Runde & Margaret Schabas, 2006. "Where Economics and Philosophy Meet: Review of the Elgar Companion to Economics and Philosophy with Responses from the Authors," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages 306-325, June.
    10. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
    11. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September.
    13. Shostak, Frank, 1997. "In Defense of Fundamental Analysis: A Critique of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 27-45.
    14. Bezemer, Dirk J, 2009. "“No One Saw This Coming”: Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models," MPRA Paper 15892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hands,D. Wade, 2001. "Reflection without Rules," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521797962, September.
    16. repec:dgr:rugsom:09002 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    18. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    19. David Colander, 2005. "The future of economics: the appropriately educated in pursuit of the knowable," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 29(6), pages 927-941, November.
    20. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    21. Lukáš Kovanda, 2013. "Taktické omyly ekonomů rakouské školy při "dobývání ortodoxie" [Austrians´ Tactical Mistakes that Prevent Them to "Conquer the Orthodoxy"]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(3), pages 411-427.
    22. D. COLANDER & al., 2010. "The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 6.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    2. Frankfurter, George M. & McGoun, Elton G. & Allen, Douglas E., 2004. "The prescriptive turn in behavioral finance," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 449-468, September.
    3. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    4. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    5. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    6. Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2010. "Choix de portefeuille: comparaison des différentes stratégies [Portfolio selection: comparison of different strategies]," MPRA Paper 82946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2010.
    7. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    8. Kothari, S.P. & Ramanna, Karthik & Skinner, Douglas J., 2010. "Implications for GAAP from an analysis of positive research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 246-286, December.
    9. Bouteska, Ahmed & Kabir Hassan, M. & Gider, Zeynullah & Bataineh, Hassan, 2024. "The role of investor sentiment and market belief in forecasting V-shaped disposition effect: Evidence from a Bayesian learning process with DSSW model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Thushari Vidanage & O.G. Dayaratna-Banda, 2012. "Does Past Information Help Predict Future Price Movements in Emerging Capital Markets? Evidence from the Colombo Securities Exchange," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 13(2), pages 241-264, September.
    11. Zhang Enguang & Ma He, 2023. "An Empirical Study on Chinese Futures Market Based on Bollinger Bands Strategy and R," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(4), pages 1-1.
    12. George Obeng, 2019. "Behavioural Antecedents Complementing Classical Financial Models for Rational Decision Making," International Journal of Publication and Social Studies, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(2), pages 111-122, June.
    13. Sonntag, Dominik, 2018. "Die Theorie der fairen geometrischen Rendite [The Theory of Fair Geometric Returns]," MPRA Paper 87082, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    15. Giovanni Ferri & Doris Neuberger, 2014. "The Banking Regulatory Bubble and How to Get out of It," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 39-69, April-Jun.
    16. Thomas Holtfort, 2019. "From standard to evolutionary finance: a literature survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 207-232, June.
    17. Cederburg, Scott & O’Doherty, Michael S., 2015. "Asset-pricing anomalies at the firm level," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 113-128.
    18. Michael Dempsey, 2015. "Stock Markets, Investments and Corporate Behavior:A Conceptual Framework of Understanding," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number p1007, August.
    19. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    20. Anna Blajer-Gołębiewska, 2021. "Individual corporate reputation and perception of collective corporate reputation regarding stock market investments," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-21, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    methodology of economics; positivism; Milton Friedman; Paul Samuelson; rational expectations; theory of efficient markets; financial crisis; behavioural economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B20 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - General
    • B30 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - General
    • B31 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals - - - Individuals
    • B40 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - General
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • B50 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlaop:v:2014:y:2014:i:4:id:443:p:16-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.