IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0293524.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity analysis of shock distributions in the world economy

Author

Listed:
  • Viktor Domazetoski
  • Maryan Rizinski
  • Dimitar Trajanov
  • Ljupco Kocarev

Abstract

With the ever increasing interconnectedness among countries and industries, globalization has empowered economies and promoted international trade, capital flow and labor mobility, leading to improved products and services. However, the growing interdependence has also propelled an inherent reliance on joint cooperation which has considerably influenced the complexity of global value chains (GVCs). This plays a significant role in policy decisions, raising questions about trade risks that originate from such interdependence. In this paper, we study the impact of network linkage disturbances on the output supply and input demand of countries. We model the network interconnectedness of countries according to the latest 2016 release of the World Input–Output Database (WIOD) that includes data tables for the period 2000-2014 covering 43 countries as well as a model for the Rest of the World (ROW). We assess the shock distributions across the world economy by quantifying the changes in the network linkages using sensitivity analysis. Our contribution is in the definition of a shock tensor with the purpose of evaluating the impact of link sensitivity. The shock tensor is a straightforward yet comprehensive tool that allows us to obtain ample results at various levels of granularity when combining it with aggregation operators. Our study introduces a novel methodology that enables us to acquire input and output link sensitivities for all country pairings when an economic shock initiates or concludes within a country of interest. This innovative approach also facilitates the analysis of evolving trends in these link sensitivities, providing a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of shock propagation across the global network. Taking advantage of the time-series nature of the WIOD, our results reveal illustrative visualizations and quantative measures that characterize patterns of shock distribution and relationships among countries throughout the period from 2000 to 2014. Our methodology and results not only uncover valuable trends but also establish a structured approach to better understand the aggregate effects of shock distributions. Thus, this study could be helpful for policy makers to assess trade relationships between countries and obtain quantitative insights for making informed decisions as well as explore the overall state of the globalization as a whole.

Suggested Citation

  • Viktor Domazetoski & Maryan Rizinski & Dimitar Trajanov & Ljupco Kocarev, 2023. "Sensitivity analysis of shock distributions in the world economy," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(10), pages 1-19, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0293524
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0293524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0293524
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0293524&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0293524?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anderson, James & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto, 2015. "Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2015-2, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    2. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell & Wouter Simons, 2022. "Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2338-2369, August.
    3. Olivier Cattaneo & Gary Gereffi & Cornelia Staritz, 2010. "Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World : A Development Perspective," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2509, April.
    4. Simonovits, A, 1975. "A Note on the Underestimation and Overestimation of the Leontief Inverse," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 43(3), pages 493-498, May.
    5. Lahiri, Sajal & Satchell, Steve, 1985. "Underestimation and overestimation of the Leontief inverse revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 181-186.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manfred Lenzen, 2001. "A Generalized Input-Output Multiplier Calculus for Australia," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 65-92.
    2. Marco Percoco, 2004. "A Statistical Model for the Identification of Key Sectors in I-O Models," ERSA conference papers ersa04p90, European Regional Science Association.
    3. Marco Percoco & Geoffrey Hewings & Lanfranco Senn, 2006. "Structural change decomposition through a global sensitivity analysis of input-output models," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 115-131.
    4. Umed Temurshoev, 2015. "Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis," Working Papers 2015-004, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Department of Economics.
    5. Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards, 2022. "The bilateral trade effects of announcement shocks: Brexit as a natural field experiment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 305-329, March.
    6. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
    7. Benno Ferrarini, 2013. "Vertical Trade Maps," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 105-123, June.
    8. Hylke Vandenbussche & William Connell & Wouter Simons, 2022. "Global value chains, trade shocks and jobs: An application to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(8), pages 2338-2369, August.
    9. repec:wsr:ecbook:2013:i:v-002 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Kox, Henk L.M. & Rojas Romasgosa, Hugo, 2019. "Gravity estimations with FDI bilateral data: Potential FDI effects of deep preferential trade agreements," MPRA Paper 96318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Erik Braun & Emese Braun & András Gyimesi & Zita Iloskics & Tamás Sebestyén, 2023. "Exposure to trade disruptions in case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A product network approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(10), pages 2950-2982, October.
    13. De Backer, Koen & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2014. "Mapping global value chains," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 37176, September.
    14. Tieng Kimseng & Amna Javed & Chawalit Jeenanunta & Youji Kohda, 2020. "Sustaining Innovation through Joining Global Supply Chain Networks: The Case of Manufacturing Firms in Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-17, June.
    15. Keita, Sekou & Stepanok, Ignat & Vallizadeh, Ehsan, 2020. "Beschäftigungsrelevanz des Handels mit dem Vereinigten Königreich: Exportabhängige Arbeitsplätze sind über Branchen und Regionen ungleich verteilt," IAB-Kurzbericht 202001, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Charlotte Keijser & Michiko Iizuka, 2018. "Looking Beyond Global Value Chains in Capacity Development: The Case of the IT-Enabled Service (ITES) Sector in South Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(3), pages 442-461, July.
    17. Chessa, Michela & Persenda, Arnaud & Torre, Dominique, 2023. "Brexit and Canadadvent: An application of graphs and hypergraphs to recent international trade agreements," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1-12.
    18. Sposi, Michael, 2022. "Demographics and the evolution of global imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 1-14.
    19. André Wolf, 2019. "Der Brexit aus EU-Perspektive [The Brexit from an EU perspective]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(10), pages 739-740, October.
    20. Michał Burzyński & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport, 2018. "The Changing Structure of Immigration to the OECD: What Welfare Effects on Member Countries?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 564-601, September.
    21. Chun Yang, 2013. "From Strategic Coupling to Recoupling and Decoupling: Restructuring Global Production Networks and Regional Evolution in China," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 1046-1063, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0293524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.