Modelling International Tourism Demand in Thailand
This paper sought to find the short-run and long-run relationships between international tourist arrivals in Thailand with economic variables such as GDP, the price of goods and services, transportation costs, and the exchange rate for the period from 1997(Q1)-2005(Q2). Both the Cointegration techniques based on Johansen and Juselius (1990) and Error Correction Mechanisms based on Engle and Granger concept (1997) were used to find the long-run and short-run relationships of the international tourism demand model for Thailand. This paper used the full six standard method test for unit root tests such as ADF-Test (1979), PP-Test (1997,1999), KPSS-Test (1992), DF-GLS Test (1996), the ERS Point Optimal Test and Ng and Perron (2001). The full six standard method test for unit root test have not previously been used to test unit roots for estimating tourism demand models. The long-run results indicate that growth in income (GDP) of Thailand’s major tourist source markets has a positive impact on international visitor arrivals to Thailand while both transportation cost and exchange rate has a negative impact on international visitor arrivals to Thailand. The findings were consistent with economic theory and the implications of the model can be used for policy making.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pius Odunga & Henk Folmer, 2004. "Profiling Tourists for Balanced Utilization of Tourism-Based Resources in Kenya," Working Papers 2004.23, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson, .
"Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariates,"
Economics Working Papers
2000-6, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2000. "Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariances," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt47k7z69n, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2002. "Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariates," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4v35s2gv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec..
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
- Tom Doan, . "GLSDETREND: RATS procedure to perform local to unity GLS detrending," Statistical Software Components RTS00077, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "ERSTEST: RATS procedure to perform Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock unit root tests," Statistical Software Components RTS00066, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Modelling the Determinants of International Tourism Demand to Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0532, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
- George Kapetanios, 2003. "A Note on Joint Estimation of Common Cycles and Common Trends in Nonstationary Multivariate Systems," Working Papers 483, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:9:i:3:y:2009:p:125-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Imola Driga)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.