Modelling International Tourism Demand in Thailand
This paper sought to find the short-run and long-run relationships between international tourist arrivals in Thailand with economic variables such as GDP, the price of goods and services, transportation costs, and the exchange rate for the period from 1997(Q1)-2005(Q2). Both the Cointegration techniques based on Johansen and Juselius (1990) and Error Correction Mechanisms based on Engle and Granger concept (1997) were used to find the long-run and short-run relationships of the international tourism demand model for Thailand. This paper used the full six standard method test for unit root tests such as ADF-Test (1979), PP-Test (1997,1999), KPSS-Test (1992), DF-GLS Test (1996), the ERS Point Optimal Test and Ng and Perron (2001). The full six standard method test for unit root test have not previously been used to test unit roots for estimating tourism demand models. The long-run results indicate that growth in income (GDP) of Thailand’s major tourist source markets has a positive impact on international visitor arrivals to Thailand while both transportation cost and exchange rate has a negative impact on international visitor arrivals to Thailand. The findings were consistent with economic theory and the implications of the model can be used for policy making.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Pius Odunga & Henk Folmer, 2004. "Profiling Tourists for Balanced Utilization of Tourism-Based Resources in Kenya," Working Papers 2004.23, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
- Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2000.
"Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariances,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
qt47k7z69n, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson, "undated". "Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariates," Economics Working Papers 2000-6, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Elliott, Graham & Jansson, Michael, 2002. "Testing for Unit Roots with Stationary Covariates," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4v35s2gv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "KPSS: RATS procedure to perform KPSS (Kwiatowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin) stationarity test," Statistical Software Components RTS00100, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- George Kapetanios, 2003. "A Note on Joint Estimation of Common Cycles and Common Trends in Nonstationary Multivariate Systems," Working Papers 483, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- MacKinnon, James G, 1996.
"Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
- James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Modelling the Determinants of International Tourism Demand to Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0532, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:9:i:3:y:2009:p:125-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Imola Driga)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.