Down Trend Forecasting Method with ARFIMA: International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand
Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on ARFIMA(p,d,q) or fractionally integrated moving average(ARFIMA). The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for during period of 2009. From these period the results confirm that the best forecasting method based on ARFIMA(p,d,q) method is ARFIMA(0,0.443,1). Furthermore these methods predict that international tourism arrivals to Thailand for during period of 2009 will be both down trend and constant trend. If these results can be generalized for future year, then it suggests that the both Thailand government sector and also the private tourism industry sector of this country need to both develop tourism market of Thailand more and develop tourism product in Thailand more too.
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