IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Forecasting with X-12-Arima: International Tourist Arrivals to India

  • Prasert Chaitip

    (Chiang Mai University, Thailand)

  • Chukiat Chaiboonsri

    (Bangalore University, India)

  • N. Rangaswamy

    (Bangalore University, India)

  • Siriporn Mcdowall

    (Rosen College of Hospitality Management University of Central Florida, Orlando, USA)

Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment and this method was developed by the Census Bureau in the United States. It has been continually improved since the 1960s, and it is used by many statistics agencies and central banks. The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to India for 2007-2010 based on the period 2002-2006. The results confirm that the best forecasting method based on the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1), X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1). Furthermore this method predict that international tourism arrivals to India for 2007-2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to India will be 5,079,651 million, 5,652,190 million, 6,224,490 million and 6,796,990 million, respectively. If these results can be generalized for future year, then it suggests that both the India government sector and private tourism industry sector should prepare to receive increasing numbers of international tourist arrivals to India in this period.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://upet.ro/annals/economics/pdf/2009/20090112.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by University of Petrosani, Romania in its journal Annals of the University of Petrosani - Economics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 107-128

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:9:i:1:y:2009:p:107-128
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.upet.ro/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Proietti Tommaso, 2004. "Seasonal Specific Structural Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, May.
  2. Jeffery D Amato, 2005. "Risk aversion and risk premia in the CDS market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  3. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-52, April.
  4. Fabio Fornari, 2005. "The rise and fall of US dollar interest rate volatility: evidence from swaptions," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:9:i:1:y:2009:p:107-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Imola Driga)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.