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Diagnóstico de estacionalidad con X-12-ARIMA

Author

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  • Mauricio Gallardo
  • Hernán Rubio

Abstract

Este documento es una nota metodológica orientada a ayudar a resolver dos problemas prácticos que deben enfrentar típicamente los usuarios no especializados del programa de ajuste estacional X-12-ARIMA: (i) determinar si hay evidencia estadística de la existencia de estacionalidad en la serie de tiempo estudiada y (ii) evaluar la calidad del ajuste estacional que se ha realizado. Se explica algunos de los resultados estándares del módulo X-11 del X-12-ARIMA, disponibles en varios manuales. No obstante, este documento ofrece la ventaja de ir directamente a la solución práctica de los dos puntos señalados, a través de casos prácticos y reproduciendo la construcción de los contrastes de presencia de estacionalidad y de los estadísticos de evaluación de calidad del ajuste estacional de manera simple y comprensiva.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Gallardo & Hernán Rubio, 2009. "Diagnóstico de estacionalidad con X-12-ARIMA," Economic Statistics Series 76, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchee:76
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    File URL: http://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/estudios-economicos-estadisticos/pdf/see76.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
    2. Villarreal, Francisco G., 2005. "Elementos teóricos del ajuste estacional de series económicas utilizando X-12-ARIMA y TRAMO-SEATS," Estudios Estadísticos 38, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    3. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 169-177, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos A. Medel V. & Michael Pedersen, 2010. "Incertidumbre en las Series Desestacionalizadas de Actividad y Demanda en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 13(1), pages 63-72, April.
    2. Marcus Cobb & Maribel Jara, 2013. "Ajuste estacional de series macroeconómicas chilenas," Economic Statistics Series 98, Central Bank of Chile.

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