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Modelling the Determinants of International Tourism Demand to Australia

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Listed:
  • Christine Lim
  • Michael McAleer

Abstract

Prior to the recent Asian currency and economic crises, tourism from Asia had rapidly become Australia's major tourism export industry. Tourists from Singapore, which is Australia's fifth major market, represented 6% of international tourist arrivals to Australia in 1996. The average annual growth rate of tourist arrivals from Singapore of around 20% over 1990-96 far exceeded the 10.5% average annual percentage growth rate of all tourist arrivals to Australia over the same period (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1997). Despite the Asian currency and economic crises in 1997-98, tourist arrivals to Australia from Singapore has continued to grow slowly. It is imperative from the tourism marketing SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis to consider the economic factors influencing international tourism demand for Australia by Singapore, and to undertake a primary competitor analysis of New Zealand. The purpose of the paper is to estimate the income, price and transportation cost elasticities of inbound tourism from Singapore to Australia using seasonally unadjusted quarterly data, to determine if Australia and New Zealand are substitute or complementary destinations for Singaporean tourists, and to examine issues such as nonstationarity, cointegration and spurious regressions.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Modelling the Determinants of International Tourism Demand to Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0532, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0532
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    File URL: https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/dp/2001/dp0532.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Kulendran, 1996. "Modelling Quarterly Tourist Flows to Australia Using Cointegration Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 2(3), pages 203-222, September.
    2. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2000. "A seasonal analysis of Asian tourist arrivals to Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 499-509.
    3. Alan Morris & Ken Wilson & Steve Bakalis, 1995. "Modelling Tourism Flows from Europe to Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 1(2), pages 147-167, June.
    4. World Bank, 2000. "World Development Indicators 2000," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13828, December.
    5. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1599-1619.
    6. Clive Morley, 2000. "Demand Modelling Methodologies: Integration and other Issues," Tourism Economics, , vol. 6(1), pages 5-19, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Richa Dhariwal, 2005. "Tourist Arrivals in India: How Important are Domestic Disorders?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(2), pages 185-205, June.
    3. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip & N. Rangaswamy, 2008. "A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Test of the Modeling International Tourism Demand in India," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 8(1), pages 95-124.
    5. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Prasert Chaitip & N. Rangaswamy, 2009. "Modelling International Tourism Demand in Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 9(3), pages 125-146.
    6. Chukiat Chaiboonsri & Jittaporn Sriboonjit & Thanes Sriwichailamphan & Prasert Chaitip & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2010. "A Panel Cointegration Analysis: An Application To International Tourism Demand Of Thailand," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 10(3), pages 69-86.
    7. Pham, Tien Duc & Nghiem, Son & Dwyer, Larry, 2017. "The determinants of Chinese visitors to Australia: A dynamic demand analysis," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 268-276.

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