IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v62y2011i5d10.1057_jors.2010.47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Towards the integration of system modelling with scenario planning to support strategy: the case of the UK energy industry

Author

Listed:
  • G Burt

    (University of Strathclyde Business School)

Abstract

A key aspect of strategy is sense-making of the unfolding uncertainty in the business environment and responding appropriately to achieve organisational objectives. However, uncertainty means that there is more than one future open to an organisation. Sense-making is therefore problematic. Scenario planning is one approach to sense-making that helps to explore and understand uncertainty, aiming for the identification of potential predetermined elements in the business environment. In this paper we propose the integration of systems modelling with scenario planning to support the exploration of uncertainty, identify knowledge gaps that set a (subsequent) research agenda, understand the role and usefulness of historical data, and model research outcomes to help reveal potential predetermined elements. Specifically, scenario planning identifies potential predetermined elements in the business environment; system modelling in the form of behaviour-over-time graphs, causal mapping and feedback loops helps in structuring and linking variables and their interaction to provide an understanding of the systemic drivers of these predetermined elements. Methodological integration of this type enhances modellers’ ability to support strategy in organisations.

Suggested Citation

  • G Burt, 2011. "Towards the integration of system modelling with scenario planning to support strategy: the case of the UK energy industry," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(5), pages 830-839, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:5:d:10.1057_jors.2010.47
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2010.47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jors.2010.47
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/jors.2010.47?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raghu Garud & Michael A. Rappa, 1994. "A Socio-Cognitive Model of Technology Evolution: The Case of Cochlear Implants," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(3), pages 344-362, August.
    2. C. K. Prahalad & Richard A. Bettis, 1986. "The dominant logic: A new linkage between diversity and performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(6), pages 485-501, November.
    3. Dyson, R. G. & Foster, M. J., 1980. "Effectiveness in strategic planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 163-170, September.
    4. C Eden & F Ackermann, 2000. "Mapping distinctive competencies: a systemic approach," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(1), pages 12-20, January.
    5. Robert G Dyson, 2000. "Strategy, performance and operational research," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(1), pages 5-11, January.
    6. Pidd, Michael, 1995. "Pictures from an exhibition: Images of OR/MS," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 479-488, March.
    7. Robert M. Grant, 2003. "Strategic planning in a turbulent environment: evidence from the oil majors," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 491-517, June.
    8. Dyson, R. G. & Foster, M. J., 1983. "Effectiveness in strategic planning revisited," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 146-158, February.
    9. M Pidd, 2004. "Contemporary OR/MS in strategy development and policy-making: some reflections," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 55(8), pages 791-800, August.
    10. Bunn, Derek W. & Salo, Ahti A., 1993. "Forecasting with scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 291-303, August.
    11. P H Grinyer, 2000. "A cognitive approach to group strategic decision taking: a discussion of evolved practice in the light of received research results," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(1), pages 21-35, January.
    12. F O'Brien & M Meadows, 2000. "Corporate visioning: a survey of UK practice," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(1), pages 36-44, January.
    13. Raza Mir & Andrew Watson, 2000. "Strategic management and the philosophy of science: the case for a constructivist methodology," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(9), pages 941-953, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luke Houghton & Larry Crump, 2016. "Temporal Events and Problem Structuring," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 324-340, May.
    2. Roberts, Simon H. & Foran, Barney D. & Axon, Colin J. & Warr, Benjamin S. & Goddard, Nigel H., 2018. "Consequences of selecting technology pathways on cumulative carbon dioxide emissions for the United Kingdom," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 409-425.
    3. Fabio Boschetti & Elizabeth A. Fulton & Nicola J. Grigg, 2014. "Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. F O'Brien, 2011. "Supporting the strategy process: a survey of UK OR/MS practitioners," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(5), pages 900-920, May.
    2. R Ormerod, 2006. "The OR/MS contribution to strategy development and policy-making," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(1), pages 117-120, January.
    3. Wiek, Arnim & Walter, Alexander I., 2009. "A transdisciplinary approach for formalized integrated planning and decision-making in complex systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 360-370, August.
    4. J Bryant & J Darwin & C Booth, 2011. "Strategy making with the whole organisation: OR and the art of the possible," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(5), pages 840-854, May.
    5. E Tapinos & R G Dyson & M Meadows, 2011. "Does the Balanced Scorecard make a difference to the strategy development process?," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(5), pages 888-899, May.
    6. Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2020. "Analogical reasoning, cognition, and the response to technological change: Lessons from mobile communication," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(5).
    7. Ng, Desmond W., 2011. "Thinking Outside the Box: An Absorptive Capacity Approach to the Product Development Process," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 14(3), pages 1-28, September.
    8. Riccardo Vecchiato & Giampiero Favato & Francesco di Maddaloni & Hang Do, 2020. "Foresight, cognition, and long‐term performance: Insights from the automotive industry and opportunities for future research," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), March.
    9. M H Kunc & J D W Morecroft, 2009. "Resource-based strategies and problem structuring: using resource maps to manage resource systems," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(2), pages 191-199, February.
    10. Rita Di Mascio, 2016. "Firms’ adoption of self-service technology: how managerial beliefs shape co-production decisions," AMS Review, Springer;Academy of Marketing Science, vol. 6(1), pages 79-97, June.
    11. Florence Allard-Poesi, 1998. "Representations And Influence Processes In Groups: Towards A Socio-Cognitive Perspective On Cognition In Organization," Post-Print hal-01490579, HAL.
    12. Mingers, John & White, Leroy, 2010. "A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1147-1161, December.
    13. Ferreira, Fernando A.F. & Jalali, Marjan S. & Ferreira, João J.M., 2016. "Experience-focused thinking and cognitive mapping in ethical banking practices: From practical intuition to theory," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 4953-4958.
    14. D Shaw & F Ackermann & C Eden, 2003. "Approaches to sharing knowledge in group problem structuring," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(9), pages 936-948, September.
    15. M Pidd, 2006. "Reply to R Ormerod," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 57(1), pages 120-121, January.
    16. Crawford, Megan M. & Wright, George, 2022. "The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    17. Filippo Zanin & Eugenio Comuzzi, 2019. "Scenarizzazione e pianificazione strategica nei contesti complessi," MANAGEMENT CONTROL, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2019(1 suppl.), pages 95-120.
    18. Sarah Kaplan, 2008. "Framing Contests: Strategy Making Under Uncertainty," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 19(5), pages 729-752, October.
    19. Mehmet Ali Köseoglu & John A. Parnell & Melissa Yan Yee Yick, 2021. "Identifying influential studies and maturity level in intellectual structure of fields: evidence from strategic management," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(2), pages 1271-1309, February.
    20. Kaplan, Sarah & Tripsas, Mary, 2008. "Thinking about technology: Applying a cognitive lens to technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 790-805, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:62:y:2011:i:5:d:10.1057_jors.2010.47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.