IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/compes/v62y2020i1d10.1057_s41294-019-00095-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Conflict on Trade in Services: A Sector-Level Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Didier

    (Université de La Réunion)

Abstract

Conflicts have a negative effect on trade for the involved and neutral countries over time. However, most papers study the case of merchandise trade without paying attention to trade in services, whereas conflicts significantly affect market access and the mobility of factors of production. This article aims to assess the impact of interstate conflicts between belligerents and disentangle the respective effects of these events not only across levels of hostility (use of force or not) and fatality (victims or not) but also across the geographical locations of the belligerents. We use a structural gravity model with robust methods for the period 1985–2016 concerning total flows of trade in services and eight service sectors (communication, construction, finance, insurance, other business services, personal cultural and recreational services, transport, and travel). The results confirm the significant and negative effect of interstate conflicts between belligerent countries on trade in services. We show that conflicts have a higher trade deterioration effect on finance and travel services than on the other sectors. Finance, insurance, and travel services are the most affected by the level of hostility and fatality of these events. Finally, we show that conflicts have dissimilar effects across countries and service sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Didier, 2020. "The Impact of Conflict on Trade in Services: A Sector-Level Analysis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(1), pages 34-48, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:62:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1057_s41294-019-00095-y
    DOI: 10.1057/s41294-019-00095-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41294-019-00095-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41294-019-00095-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dave Donaldson, 2018. "Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 899-934, April.
    2. Lorenzo Rotunno & Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2017. "Israel’s open-secret trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 233-248, May.
    3. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/10149 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2008. "Civil Wars and International Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 541-550, 04-05.
    5. Guy Michaels & Xiaojia Zhi, 2010. "Freedom Fries," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 256-281, July.
    6. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Amélie Guillin, 2013. "Trade in Services and Regional Trade Agreements: Do Negotiations on Services Have to be Specific?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(11), pages 1406-1423, November.
    8. Innwon Park & Soonchan Park, 2011. "Regional Liberalisation of Trade in Services," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 725-740, May.
    9. Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Trade, conflict, and political integration: Explaining the heterogeneity of regional trade agreements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 54-71.
    10. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    11. Erik Marel & Ben Shepherd, 2013. "Services Trade, Regulation and Regional Integration: Evidence from Sectoral Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(11), pages 1393-1405, November.
    12. Fally, Thibault, 2015. "Structural gravity and fixed effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 76-85.
    13. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, November.
    14. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/10149 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Eckstein, Zvi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 2004. "Macroeconomic consequences of terror: theory and the case of Israel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 971-1002, July.
    17. Tilman Brück & Wim Naudé & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Entrepreneurship and Violent Conflict in Developing Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-028, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2004. "Aid, policy and growth in post-conflict societies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1125-1145, October.
    19. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    20. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    21. Qureshi, Mahvash Saeed, 2013. "Trade and thy neighbor's war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-195.
    22. Ali,Rubaba & Barra,Alvaro Federico & Berg,Claudia N. & Damania,Richard & Nash,John D. & Russ,Jason Daniel, 2015. "Infrastructure in conflict-prone and fragile environments : evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7273, The World Bank.
    23. Fukunari Kimura & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2006. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 92-121, April.
    24. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    25. Jaimin Lee & Seong-Hoon Cho, 2017. "Free trade agreement and transport service trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7), pages 1494-1512, July.
    26. Tilman Brück & Wim Naudé & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Business under Fire: Entrepreneurship and Violent Conflict in Developing Countries," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/167759, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    27. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    28. Janet Ceglowski, 2006. "Does Gravity Matter in a Service Economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 307-329, July.
    29. Joseph Francois & Olga Pindyuk, 2013. "Consolidated Data on International Trade in Services," IIDE Discussion Papers 20130101, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    30. Heilmann, Kilian, 2016. "Does political conflict hurt trade? Evidence from consumer boycotts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 179-191.
    31. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Korn, Tobias & Stemmler, Henry, 2022. "Your Pain, My Gain? On the Trade Relocation Effects from Civil Conflict," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264095, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Ali Dadpay & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2021. "Political Agreements and Exporting Activities: An Empirical Assessment of the Effects of the JCPOA Agreement on Iran’s Exports," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 147-180, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laurent Didier, 2018. "Do environmental provisions in regional trade agreements affect trade in services?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 733-750.
    2. Anderson, James E. & Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya & Yotov, Yoto V., 2018. "Dark costs, missing data: Shedding some light on services trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 193-214.
    3. Peter H. Egger & Joseph Francois & Douglas R. Nelson, 2017. "The Role of Goods-Trade Networks for Services-Trade Volume," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 532-543, March.
    4. Laurent Didier, 2020. "Comparing the Impacts of Some North-North and North-South Trade Agreements on Trade in Services [Comparaison des impacts des accords commerciaux Nord-Nord et Nord-Sud sur le commerce des services]," Post-Print hal-03665971, HAL.
    5. Zongo, Amara, 2020. "The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Food Trade," MPRA Paper 101658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kamin, Katrin, 2022. "Bilateral trade and conflict heterogeneity: The impact of conflict on trade revisited," Kiel Working Papers 2222, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    8. (ed.), 0. "Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16053.
    9. Maria Cipollina & Luca De Benedictis & Luca Salvatici & Claudio Vicarelli, 2016. "Policy Measurement And Multilateral Resistance In Gravity Models," Working Papers LuissLab 16130, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    10. William W. Olney, 2022. "Intra-African trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 25-51, February.
    11. Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2023. "Unveiling the trade and welfare effects of regional services trade agreements: A structural gravity approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Rebecca Freeman & Mario Larch & Angelos Theodorakopoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2021. "Unlocking New Methods to Estimate Country-Specific Trade Costs and Trade Elasticities," CESifo Working Paper Series 9432, CESifo.
    13. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yotov, Yoto V., 2021. "From theory to policy with gravitas: A solution to the mystery of the excess trade balances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Ingo Borchert & Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Disaggregated gravity: Benchmark estimates and stylized facts from a new database," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 113-136, February.
    15. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    16. Heid, Benedikt & Stähler, Frank, 2024. "Structural gravity and the gains from trade under imperfect competition: Quantifying the effects of the European Single Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    17. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Economic sanctions and agricultural trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(4), pages 1477-1517, August.
    18. Piermartini, Roberta & Yotov, Yoto, 2016. "Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    19. Dimitrios Dadakas & Stavroula Tatsi, 2021. "Global agricultural trade impact of the 2011 triple disaster in Japan: A gravity approach," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(4), pages 937-972, October.
    20. Sébastien Jean & Jean-Christophe Bureau, 2015. "Do Regional Trade Agreements Really Boost Trade? Estimates for Agricultural Products," Working Papers 2015-09, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Services; Conflict; Trade; Gravity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:62:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1057_s41294-019-00095-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.