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Sovereign debt: election concerns and the democratic disadvantage

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  • Amrita Dhillon
  • Andrew Pickering
  • Tomas Sjöström

Abstract

We re-examine the concept of ‘democratic advantage’ in sovereign debt ratings when optimal repayment policies are time-inconsistent. If democratically elected politicians are unable to make credible commitments, then default rates are inefficiently high, so democracy potentially confers a credit market disadvantage. Institutions that are shielded from political pressure may ameliorate the disadvantage by adopting a more farsighted perspective. Using a numerical measure of institutional farsightedness obtained from the Global Insight Business Risk and Conditions database, we find that the observed relationship between credit ratings and democratic status is strongly conditional on farsightedness. With myopic institutions, democracy is associated with worsened credit ratings on average by about three investment grades. With farsighted institutions there is, if anything, a democratic advantage.

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  • Amrita Dhillon & Andrew Pickering & Tomas Sjöström, 2019. "Sovereign debt: election concerns and the democratic disadvantage," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 320-343.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:71:y:2019:i:2:p:320-343.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpy036
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    Cited by:

    1. Amrita Dhillon & Andrew Pickering & Tomas Sjöström, 2019. "Sovereign debt: election concerns and the democratic disadvantage," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 320-343.
    2. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Sayantan Ghosal & Marcus Miller, 2019. "Introduction to the special issue on sovereign debt restructuring," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 309-319.
    4. Calomiris, Charles W. & Tsoulouhas, Theofanis, 2022. "Bailing out conflicted sovereigns," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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