IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/jeurec/v22y2024i2p915-962..html

Forced Migration and Local Public Policies: Evidence from Post-War West Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Arnaud Chevalier
  • Benjamin Elsner
  • Andreas Lichter
  • Nico Pestel

Abstract

We study the effect of forced migration on public policy setting in the migrant-receiving country. After World War II, eight million expelled Germans arrived in West Germany within 5 years. We use regional variation in the population share of forced migrants across West German cities to estimate the effect of this inflow on cities’ taxation and spending decisions. To identify a causal effect, we pursue an instrumental variable strategy that leverages push factors of the expulsions while being orthogonal to local conditions in the destination regions. Our results show that cities with high inflows of forced migrants increased spending on welfare and education, decreased spending on infrastructure, raised local taxes, and incurred more debt. Part of these effects can be attributed to shifts in political preferences. The migrants held voting rights upon arrival and supported parties that explicitly catered to their interests and needs.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Chevalier & Benjamin Elsner & Andreas Lichter & Nico Pestel, 2024. "Forced Migration and Local Public Policies: Evidence from Post-War West Germany," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 915-962.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:22:y:2024:i:2:p:915-962.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvad043
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Murard, Elie & Sakalli, Seyhun Orcan, 2018. "Mass Refugee Inflow and Long-Run Prosperity: Lessons from the Greek Population Resettlement," IZA Discussion Papers 11613, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. Michael A. Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2019. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(4), pages 818-857, August.
    3. Fiorini, Luciana C. & Jetter, Michael & Parmeter, Christopher F. & Parsons, Christopher, 2020. "The Effect of Community Size on Electoral Preferences: Evidence From Post-WWII Southern Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 13724, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Abel Schumann, 2014. "Persistence of Population Shocks: Evidence from the Occupation of West Germany after World War II," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 189-205, July.
    5. Stephen J. Redding & Daniel M. Sturm, 2008. "The Costs of Remoteness: Evidence from German Division and Reunification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1766-1797, December.
    6. Michael Peters, 2022. "Market Size and Spatial Growth—Evidence From Germany's Post‐War Population Expulsions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2357-2396, September.
    7. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:379-433 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moriconi, Simone & Peri, Giovanni & Turati, Riccardo, 2025. "Analyzing political preferences of second-generation immigrants across the rural–urban divide," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. repec:ces:ceswps:_12314 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Salvatore Carrozzo, 2025. "Temporary Internal Displacement and Receiving Communities’ Voting Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series 11737, CESifo.
    4. Lu, Jianan & Hou, Wenxuan & Main, Brian G.M., 2025. "The cultural legacy of historical ethnic violence: The impact on access to finance and innovation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    5. Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna & Homburg, Ines & Vujic, Suncica, 2025. "Refugee Exposure and Political Backlash: Poland during the Russia-Ukraine War," IZA Discussion Papers 18157, IZA Network @ LISER.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arnaud Chevalier & Benjamin Elsner & Andreas Lichter & Nico Pestel, 2018. "Immigrant Voters, Taxation and the Size of the Welfare State," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 994, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    2. Michael Wyrwich, 2020. "Migration restrictions and long-term regional development: evidence from large-scale expulsions of Germans after World War II [The consequences of radical reform: the French revolution]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 481-507.
    3. Christian Ochsner, 2023. "Hostility, Population Sorting, and Backwardness: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Red Army after WWII," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp768, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Becker, Sascha O. & Ferrara, Andreas, 2019. "Consequences of forced migration: A survey of recent findings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-16.
    5. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Paul Berbée & Sebastian Till Braun & Richard Franke, 2025. "Reversing fortunes of German regions, 1926–2019: Boon and bane of early industrialization?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, June.
    7. Michael Fritsch & Maria Kristalova & Michael Wyrwich, 2020. "Regional trajectories of entrepreneurship: the effect of socialism and transition," Jena Economics Research Papers 2020-010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    8. Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Wu, Zhuangchen, 2023. "Labor markets during war time: Evidence from online job advertisements," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1316-1333.
    9. Stephan Heblich & Stephen J. Redding & Yanos Zylberberg, 2024. "The Distributional Consequences of Trade: Evidence from the Grain Invasion," Working Papers 337, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    10. Bohnet, Lara & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2022. "Cousins from Overseas: The Labour Market Impact of a Major Forced Return Migration Shock," IZA Discussion Papers 15595, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Maximilian v. Ehrlich & Tobias Seidel, 2018. "The Persistent Effects of Place-Based Policy: Evidence from the West-German Zonenrandgebiet," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 344-374, November.
    12. Hanlon, W.Walker & Heblich, Stephan, 2022. "History and urban economics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    13. Braun, Sebastian & Kramer, Anica & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Local labor markets and the persistence of population shocks," Ruhr Economic Papers 712, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Braun, Sebastian Till & Kramer, Anica & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2017. "Local Labor Markets and the Persistence of Population Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 11077, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Christoph Eder, 2022. "Missing Men: Second World War Casualties and Structural Change," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 437-460, April.
    16. Christoph Halbmeier & Carsten Schröder, 2025. "The long-term implications of destruction during the Second World War on private wealth in Germany," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 161-235, March.
    17. Braun, Sebastian T. & Dwenger, Nadja, 2020. "Settlement location shapes the integration of forced migrants: Evidence from post-war Germany⁎," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Braun, Sebastian & Dwenger, Nadja, 2017. "The local environment shapes refugee integration: Evidence from post-war Germany," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 10-2017, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    19. Eder, Christoph & Halla, Martin & Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher, Philipp, 2024. "The Long-Term Effects of Military Occupations: Evidence from Post-World War II Austria," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 366, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    20. Pamela Campa & Michel Serafinelli, 2016. "Politico-Economic Regimes And Attitudes: Female Workers Under State-Socialism Abstract: This paper investigates the extent to which attitudes are affected by political regimes and government policies. We focus on female attitudes toward work and gend," Working Papers 089, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:22:y:2024:i:2:p:915-962.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/jeea .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.