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Volatility of the Capital Flows and Structural Breaks in Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Fernando Andrés Delblanco

    (Universidad Nacional del Sur)

  • Andrés Fioriti

    (Universidad Nacional del Sur)

Registered author(s):

    This paper studies the presence of structural breaks in the capital flows of sixteen economies of Latin America using the unit test root by Zivot and Andrews (1992). It is complemented by the structural breaks test by Bai Perron (1998). Afterwards, an analysis of the likelihood of contemporaneity between the breaks found and the crises the countries had suffered in the last forty years is presented. These crises were either of currency, banking, domestic and external debt type. Many cases of contemporaneity were found, especially with the crises that occurred at the end of the 90s.

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    File URL: http://economica.econo.unlp.edu.ar/documentos/20130126112922AM_Economica_580.pdf
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    Article provided by Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata in its journal Económica.

    Volume (Year): LVIII (2012)
    Issue (Month): (January-December)
    Pages: 23-51

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    Handle: RePEc:lap:journl:580
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    1. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
    2. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
    4. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2010. "Sovereign Risk and Secondary Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1523-55, September.
    5. Roberto Frenkel & Martin Rapetti, 2009. "A developing country view of the current global crisis: what should not be forgotten and what should be done," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 685-702, July.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, 05.
    10. Roberto Frenkel, 1998. "Capital Market Liberalization and Economic Performance in Latin America," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 1998-06, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    11. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
    12. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
    13. A. Sen, 2003. "Limiting behaviour of Dickey-Fuller t-tests under the crash model alternative," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 421-429, December.
    14. Roberto FRENKEL, 2003. "Globalization and financial crises in Latin America," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 18(207), pages 41-56.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
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