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Volatility of the Capital Flows and Structural Breaks in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Andrés Delblanco

    (Universidad Nacional del Sur)

  • Andrés Fioriti

    (Universidad Nacional del Sur)

Abstract

This paper studies the presence of structural breaks in the capital flows of sixteen economies of Latin America using the unit test root by Zivot and Andrews (1992). It is complemented by the structural breaks test by Bai Perron (1998). Afterwards, an analysis of the likelihood of contemporaneity between the breaks found and the crises the countries had suffered in the last forty years is presented. These crises were either of currency, banking, domestic and external debt type. Many cases of contemporaneity were found, especially with the crises that occurred at the end of the 90s.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Andrés Delblanco & Andrés Fioriti, 2012. "Volatility of the Capital Flows and Structural Breaks in Latin America and the Caribbean," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 0, pages 23-51, January-D.
  • Handle: RePEc:lap:journl:580
    as

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    File URL: http://economica.econo.unlp.edu.ar/documentos/20130126112922AM_Economica_580.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto Frenkel, 1998. "Capital Market Liberalization and Economic Performance in Latin America," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 1998-06, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2010. "Sovereign Risk and Secondary Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1523-1555, September.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    5. A. Sen, 2003. "Limiting behaviour of Dickey-Fuller t-tests under the crash model alternative," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 421-429, December.
    6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, May.
    9. Frenkel, Roberto, 2003. "Globalization and financial crises in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    10. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    12. Roberto Frenkel & Martin Rapetti, 2009. "A developing country view of the current global crisis: what should not be forgotten and what should be done," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 685-702, July.
    13. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-162, April.
    15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural breaks; volatility; capital flows; crises; contemporaneity;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N26 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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