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Dynamic Decision Making when Risk Perception Depends on Past Experience

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  • Michèle Cohen
  • Johanna Etner
  • Meglena Jeleva

    ()

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to propose a preferences representation model under risk where risk perception can be past experience dependent. A first step consists in considering a one period decision problem where individual preferences are no more defined only on decisions but on pairs (decision, past experience). The obtained criterion is used in the construction of a dynamic choice model under risk. The paper ends with an illustrative example concerning insurance demand. Itappears that our model allows to explain modifications in the insurance demand behavior over time observed on the insurance markets for catastrophic risk and difficult to justify with standard models.
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Suggested Citation

  • Michèle Cohen & Johanna Etner & Meglena Jeleva, 2008. "Dynamic Decision Making when Risk Perception Depends on Past Experience," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 173-192, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:64:y:2008:i:2:p:173-192
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-007-9061-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robin Cubitt & Maria Ruiz-Martos & Chris Starmer, 2012. "Are bygones bygones?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 185-202, August.
      • Robin Cubitt & Maria Ruiz-Martos & Chris Starmer, 2005. "Are bygones bygones?," Discussion Papers 2005-21, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
      • Robin Cubitt & Maria Ruiz-Martos & Chris Starmer, 2010. "Are bygones bygones?," Discussion Papers 2010-01, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
      • Robin Cubitt & Maria Ruiz-Martos & Chris Starmer, 2010. "Are bygones bygones?," Discussion Papers 2010-01, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
      • Robin Cubitt & Maria Ruiz-Martos & Chris Starmer, 2005. "Are bygones bygones?," Discussion Papers 2005-21, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    2. Salazar-Espinoza, César & Jones, Sam & Tarp, Finn, 2015. "Weather shocks and cropland decisions in rural Mozambique," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 9-21.
    3. Éric Langlais, 2010. "Les criminels aiment-ils le risque ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 61(2), pages 263-280.
    4. Arvid Hoffmann & Sam Henry & Nikos Kalogeras, 2013. "Aspirations as reference points: an experimental investigation of risk behavior over time," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(2), pages 193-210, August.
    5. Rapp, Thomas, 2014. "Patients' diagnosis decisions in Alzheimer's disease: The influence of family factors," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 9-16.
    6. Kvaløy, Ola & Eriksen, Kristoffer & Luzuriaga , Miguel, 2014. "Risk-taking with Other People’s Money," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/21, University of Stavanger.
    7. Kreye, M.E. & Goh, Y.M. & Newnes, L.B. & Goodwin, P., 2012. "Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 682-692.
    8. Harvey, Michael & Griffith, David & Kiessling, Tim & Moeller, Miriam, 2011. "A multi-level model of global decision-making: Developing a composite global frame-of-reference," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 177-184, April.
    9. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00348810 is not listed on IDEAS

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