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Aspirations as reference points: an experimental investigation of risk behavior over time

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  • Arvid Hoffmann
  • Sam Henry
  • Nikos Kalogeras

Abstract

This paper examines the importance of aspirations as reference points in a multi-period decision-making context. After stating their personal aspiration level, 172 individuals made six sequential decisions among risky prospects as part of a choice experiment. The results show that individuals make different risky-choices in a multi-period compared to a single-period setting. In particular, individuals’ aspiration level is their main reference point during the early stages of decision-making, while their starting status (wealth level at the start of the experiment) becomes the central reference point during the later stages of their multi-period decision-making. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

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  • Arvid Hoffmann & Sam Henry & Nikos Kalogeras, 2013. "Aspirations as reference points: an experimental investigation of risk behavior over time," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(2), pages 193-210, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:75:y:2013:i:2:p:193-210
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-012-9323-6
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    2. Bai, Tian & Wu, Meng & Zhu, Stuart X., 2019. "Pricing and ordering by a loss averse newsvendor with reference dependence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 343-365.
    3. Robert Bordley & Marco Licalzi & Luisa Tibiletti, 2017. "A Target-Based Foundation for the “Hard-Easy Effect” Bias," Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics, in: Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Hakan Danis & Ender Demir & Ugur Can (ed.), Country Experiences in Economic Development, Management and Entrepreneurship, pages 659-671, Springer.
    4. Shi-jie Jiang & Feiyun Xiang & Iris Yang, 2023. "Effect of Prevention Focus on the Relationships Among Driving Accident History, Risk Perception, and Consumers’ Automobile Insurance Coverage Decisions," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, July.
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    6. Wei, Ying & Xiong, Sijia & Li, Feng, 2019. "Ordering bias with two reference profits: Exogenous benchmark and minimum requirement," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 229-250.
    7. Stefan Zeisberger, 2022. "Do people care about loss probabilities?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 185-213, October.
    8. Wu, Meng & Bai, Tian & Zhu, Stuart X., 2018. "A loss averse competitive newsvendor problem with anchoring," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 99-111.
    9. Fenghua Wen & Zhifang He & Xu Gong & Aiming Liu, 2014. "Investors’ Risk Preference Characteristics Based on Different Reference Point," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-9, April.
    10. Pittarello, Andrea & Rubaltelli, Enrico & Rumiati, Rino, 2013. "You can’t be better than me: The role of the reference point in modulating people’s pursuit of wealth," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 65-76.
    11. Christopher Riley & Barbara Summers & Darren Duxbury, 2020. "Capital Gains Overhang with a Dynamic Reference Point," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4726-4745, October.
    12. Sergio Margarita & Luisa Tibiletti & Mariacristina Uberti, 2015. "How does Optimism impact on Entrepreneurs’ Overconfidence?," International Journal of Business Research and Management (IJBRM), Computer Science Journals (CSC Journals), vol. 6(3), pages 45-53, September.
    13. Larbi Alaoui & Antonio Penta, 2022. "Attitudes Towards Success and Failure," Working Papers 1336, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Tian Bai & Samuel N. Kirshner & Meng Wu, 2021. "Managing Overconfident Newsvendors: A Target‐Setting Approach," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(11), pages 3967-3986, November.
    15. Enrico Diecidue & Moshe Levy & Jeroen Ven, 2015. "No aspiration to win? An experimental test of the aspiration level model," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 245-266, December.
    16. Arvid O. I. Hoffmann & Daria Plotkina, 2021. "Let your past define your future? How recalling successful financial experiences can increase beliefs of self‐efficacy in financial planning," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 847-871, September.
    17. Larbi Alaoui & Antonio Penta, 2022. "Attitudes towards success and failure," Economics Working Papers 1831, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

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