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The Survival of New Products

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  • Marcus Asplund
  • Rickard Sandin

Abstract

We study the product turnover in an industry and, in particular, the survival of new products. The data set consists of monthly sales of all products sold in the Swedish beer market over the time period of 1989-1995. The death rates of newly introduced products are high - out of 199 products an estimated 25 percent were withdrawn within 18 months and 50 percent within approximately 48 months. We use parametric duration models with time varying covariates to estimate survival functions. Our results show that products with low and decreasing market shares have higher hazard rates. Moreover, the hazard rates are dependent on the characteristics of the producer. Products from firms with a large number of other products, and (to a lesser extent) the largest market shares are more likely to be withdrawn.
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Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Asplund & Rickard Sandin, 1999. "The Survival of New Products," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 15(3), pages 219-237, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:revind:v:15:y:1999:i:3:p:219-237
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1007708612713
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro, 1994. "Life Duration of New Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 227-245, September.
    2. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    3. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    4. Mata, Jose & Portugal, Pedro & Guimaraes, Paulo, 1995. "The survival of new plants: Start-up conditions and post-entry evolution," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-481, December.
    5. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
    6. Raubitschek, Ruth S., 1988. "Hitting the jackpot: Product proliferation by multiproduct firms under uncertainty," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 469-488.
    7. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    8. Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Xingliang & Shi, Guanming, 2010. "GM vs. Non-GM: A Survival Analysis of Hybrid Seed Corn in the US," Staff Paper Series 553, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    2. Euy-Young Jung & Chulwoo Baek & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2012. "Product survival analysis for the App Store," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 929-941, December.
    3. María Moral & Jordi Jaumandreu, 2007. "Automobile demand, model cycle and age effects," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 193-218, September.
    4. Elizabeth Webster & Paul H. Jensen, 2011. "Do Patents Matter for Commercialization?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 431-453.
    5. Mô JosÈ Moral & Jordi Jaumandreu, "undated". "Automobile demand, model cycle and price effects," Studies on the Spanish Economy 64, FEDEA.
    6. Francisco Requena-Silvente & James T. Walker, 2009. "The Survival Of Differentiated Products: An Application To The Uk Automobile Market, 1971-2002," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(3), pages 288-316, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Product survival; multiproduct firms; duration model; beer market;

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco

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