The Survival of New Products
We study the product turnover in an industry and, in particular, the survival of new products. The data set consists of monthly sales of all products sold in the Swedish beer market over the time period of 1989-1995. The death rates of newly introduced products are high - out of 199 products an estimated 25 percent were withdrawn within 18 months and 50 percent within approximately 48 months. We use parametric duration models with time varying covariates to estimate survival functions. Our results show that products with low and decreasing market shares have higher hazard rates. Moreover, the hazard rates are dependent on the characteristics of the producer. Products from firms with a large number of other products, and (to a lesser extent) the largest market shares are more likely to be withdrawn.
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|Date of creation:||Nov 1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Review of Industrial Organization, 1999, pages 219-237.|
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"The survival of new plants: Start-up conditions and post-entry evolution,"
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 459-481, December.
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