IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/pubcho/v132y2007i1p103-112.html

The persuasive power of a Committee Chairman: Arthur Burns and the FOMC

Author

Listed:
  • Henry Chappell

  • Rob McGregor
  • Todd Vermilyea

Abstract

This paper investigates persuasion as a means of influence for the Federal Reserve Chairman in meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Using textual records of FOMC meetings, federal funds rate targets have been recorded for Committee members who served in the Arthur Burns era (1970–1978). Results show that Burns-member differences in stated funds rate targets were lower when Burns made recommendations early in the meeting, consistent with the hypothesis that the Chairman is persuasive. Additional results show that members’ tendencies to respond to Burns's recommendations were related to their personal and political loyalties. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Henry Chappell & Rob McGregor & Todd Vermilyea, 2007. "The persuasive power of a Committee Chairman: Arthur Burns and the FOMC," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 103-112, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:132:y:2007:i:1:p:103-112
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-006-9136-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-006-9136-7
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11127-006-9136-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jerry L. Jordan, 2001. "Darryl Francis: maverick in the formulation of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Jul), pages 17-22.
    2. Hakes, David R, 1990. "The Objectives and Priorities of Monetary Policy under Different Federal Reserve Chairmen," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 327-337, August.
    3. Peek, Joe & Wilcox, James A, 1987. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Reduced Form for Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 273-291, August.
    4. Chappell, Henry W, Jr & McGregor, Rob Roy & Vermilyea, Todd, 2004. "Majority Rule, Consensus Building, and the Power of the Chairman: Arthur Burns and the FOMC," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 407-422, June.
    5. Henry W. Chappell, Jr. & Rob Roy McGregor & Todd A. Vermilyea, 2005. "Committee Decisions on Monetary Policy: Evidence from Historical Records of the Federal Open Market Committee," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033305, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2011. "Corporate culture and behaviour: A survey," DNB Working Papers 334, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Eichler, Stefan & Lähner, Tom & Noth, Felix, 2016. "Regional Banking Instability and FOMC Voting," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145803, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Ellen E. Meade, 2010. "Is There a Limit on FOMC Dissents? Evidence from the Greenspan Era," Working Papers 2010-16, American University, Department of Economics.
    4. Mikael Apel & Carl Andreas Claussen & Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Petra Lennartsdotter & Øistein Røisland, 2013. "Monetary policy decisions – comparing theory and “inside” information from MPC members," Working Paper 2013/03, Norges Bank.
    5. Hamza Bennani, 2012. "National influences inside the ECB: an assessment from central bankers' statements," Working Papers hal-00992646, HAL.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Barbara Schnurbein, 2012. "European monetary policy and the ECB rotation model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 289-323, April.
    7. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
    8. Baerg, Nicole Rae & Krainin, Colin, 2022. "Divided committees and strategic vagueness," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Holly, Sean & Wasseja, Mustapha, 2024. "Network structures and heterogeneity in policy preferences at the FOMC," Accountancy, Economics, and Finance Working Papers 2024-10, Heriot-Watt University, Department of Accountancy, Economics, and Finance.
    10. Lähner, Tom, 2015. "Inconsistent voting behavior in the FOMC," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-546, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    11. Mikael Apel & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Isaiah Hull, 2022. "How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1459-1490, August.
    12. Jan Marc Berk & Beata K. Bierut, 2010. "Monetary Policy Committees: Meetings And Outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(4), pages 569-588, October.
    13. Henry W. Chappell Jr. & Rob Roy Mcgregor & Todd A. Vermilyea, 2012. "Deliberation And Learning In Monetary Policy Committees," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 839-847, July.
    14. Stefan Eichler & Tom Lähner, 2014. "Forecast dispersion, dissenting votes, and monetary policy preferences of FOMC members: the role of individual career characteristics and political aspects," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 429-453, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Etienne Farvaque & Norimichi Matsueda & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2007. "How committees reduce the volatility of policy rates," DULBEA Working Papers 07-11.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Roman Horvath & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Jan Zapal, 2014. "The dissent voting behaviour of central bankers: what do we really know?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 450-461, February.
    3. Farvaque, Etienne & Matsueda, Norimichi & Méon, Pierre-Guillaume, 2009. "How monetary policy committees impact the volatility of policy rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 534-546, December.
    4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2013. "Dispersed communication by central bank committees and the predictability of monetary policy decisions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(1), pages 223-244, October.
    5. Barbara Caporale & Tony Caporale, 2008. "Political Regimes and the Cost of Disinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1541-1554, October.
    6. Alexander Dentler, 2019. "Did the fed raise interest rates before elections?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 181(3), pages 239-273, December.
    7. Henry W. Chappell Jr. & Rob Roy Mcgregor & Todd A. Vermilyea, 2012. "Deliberation And Learning In Monetary Policy Committees," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(3), pages 839-847, July.
    8. Henry W. Chappell & Rob Roy Mcgregor & Todd A. Vermilyea, 2014. "Power‐Sharing in Monetary Policy Committees: Evidence from the United Kingdom and Sweden," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 665-692, June.
    9. Stephen Hansen & Michael McMahon & Andrea Prat, 2018. "Transparency and Deliberation Within the FOMC: A Computational Linguistics Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(2), pages 801-870.
    10. Smales, L.A., 2019. "Slopes, spreads, and depth: Monetary policy announcements and liquidity provision in the energy futures market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 234-252.
    11. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    12. Alan S. Blinder, 2009. "Making Monetary Policy by Committee," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 171-194, August.
    13. Sumner, Scott, 2015. "Nominal GDP futures targeting," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 65-75.
    14. Natsuki Arai & Shian Chang, 2025. "Dispersion of FOMC Policymakers: Evidence from Individual Economic Projections with Identities," Working Papers 2025-003, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    15. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Holly, Sean & Wasseja, Mustapha, 2024. "Network structures and heterogeneity in policy preferences at the FOMC," Accountancy, Economics, and Finance Working Papers 2024-10, Heriot-Watt University, Department of Accountancy, Economics, and Finance.
    16. Jan C. van Ours, 2022. "How Retirement Affects Mental Health, Cognitive Skills and Mortality; an Overview of Recent Empirical Evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-050/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Yash P. Mehra, 1995. "Some key empirical determinants of short-term nominal interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 33-51.
    18. Jan Marc Berk & Beata K. Bierut, 2005. "Communication in Monetary Policy Committees," DNB Working Papers 059, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    19. Mikael Apel & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Isaiah Hull, 2022. "How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1459-1490, August.
    20. Adam T. Jones & Mathew W. Snyder, 2014. "Federal Reserve independence: the Fed Funds Rate under different regimes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(18), pages 1262-1265, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:132:y:2007:i:1:p:103-112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.