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Modelling UK House Prices with Structural Breaks and Conditional Variance Analysis

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  • Kyriaki Begiazi

    (Oxford Brookes University)

  • Paraskevi Katsiampa

    (Sheffield Hallam University)

Abstract

This paper differs from previous research by examining the existence of structural breaks in the UK regional house prices as well as in the prices of the different property types (flats, terraced, detached and semi-detached houses) in the UK as a whole, motivated by the uncertainty in the UK housing market and various financial events that may lead to structural changes within the housing market. Our paper enhances the conventional unit root tests by allowing for structural breaks, while including structural break tests strengthens our analysis. Our empirical results support the existence of structural breaks in the mean equation in seven out of thirteen regions of the UK as well as in three out of four property types, and in the variance equation in six regions and three property types. In addition, using a multivariate GARCH approach we examine both the behaviour of variances and covariances of the house price returns over time. Our results have significant implications for appropriate economic policy selection and investment management.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyriaki Begiazi & Paraskevi Katsiampa, 2019. "Modelling UK House Prices with Structural Breaks and Conditional Variance Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 290-309, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:58:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-018-9652-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-018-9652-5
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rafiq Ahmed & Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Samina Khalil, 2021. "Bubble Detection in Housing Market: Evidence From a Developing Country," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    3. Yang Tang & Kairong Hong & Yucheng Zou & Yanwei Zhang, 2021. "Impact of Emotional Perceived Value on the Uncertain Evolution of the Housing Bubble," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-23, July.
    4. Jabed H. Tomal & Hafizur Rahman, 2021. "A Bayesian piecewise linear model for the detection of breakpoints in housing prices," METRON, Springer;Sapienza Università di Roma, vol. 79(3), pages 361-381, December.
    5. Paraskevi Katsiampa & Kyriaki Begiazi, 2019. "An empirical analysis of the Scottish housing market by property type," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(4), pages 559-583, September.
    6. James E. Payne & Xiaojin Sun, 2023. "Time‐varying connectedness of metropolitan housing markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 470-502, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    UK regions; House prices; Structural break; Volatility; MGARCH; BEKK;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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