IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/decono/v169y2021i4d10.1007_s10645-021-09392-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

From Here to There: Achieving Fiscal Sustainability Under Alternative Demographic Contingencies

Author

Listed:
  • Svend E. Hougaard Jensen

    (Copenhagen Business School Porcelaenshaven 16A)

  • Thorsteinn Sigurdur Sveinsson

    (Central Bank of Iceland)

  • Filipe Bonito Vieira

    (Copenhagen Business School Porcelaenshaven 16A)

Abstract

This paper develops a model with overlapping generations of households, productive public and private capital, and a golden rule of fiscal policy aimed at maximizing economic growth. Studying the transitional dynamics between steady states triggered by different exogenous shocks, we find that a waning fertility rate, coming through a weaker preference for having children, increased longevity, a decrease in subjective discounting or lower financial support for child rearing, will require a policy intervention to ensure convergence to the growth maximizing debt level. A simple calibration exercise shows that when faced with projected demographic aging the adjustments in public debt and public investment required for keeping the economy at its maximum steady state growth rate may be small.

Suggested Citation

  • Svend E. Hougaard Jensen & Thorsteinn Sigurdur Sveinsson & Filipe Bonito Vieira, 2021. "From Here to There: Achieving Fiscal Sustainability Under Alternative Demographic Contingencies," De Economist, Springer, vol. 169(4), pages 427-444, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:169:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s10645-021-09392-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10645-021-09392-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10645-021-09392-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10645-021-09392-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Alan Aschauer, 2000. "Do states optimize? Public capital and economic growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 34(3), pages 343-363.
    2. Akira Yakita, 2008. "Ageing and public capital accumulation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(5), pages 582-598, October.
    3. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    4. Aiyagari, S. Rao & McGrattan, Ellen R., 1998. "The optimum quantity of debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 447-469, October.
    5. Bokan, Nikola & Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Hougaard Jensen, Svend E., 2016. "Growth-Maximizing Public Debt Under Changing Demographics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1640-1651, September.
    6. Kalaitzidakis, Pantelis & Kalyvitis, Sarantis, 2004. "On the macroeconomic implications of maintenance in public capital," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 695-712, March.
    7. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Hougaard Jensen, Svend E. & Sveinsson, Thorsteinn Sigurdur & Vieira, Filipe, 2019. "Sustainable fiscal strategies under changing demographics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 34-52.
    8. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151.
    10. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Hougaard Jensen, Svend E. & Sveinsson, Thorsteinn Sigurdur & Vieira, Filipe, 2019. "Sustainable fiscal strategies under changing demographics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 34-52.
    2. Yusuke Miyake, 2021. "Childcare Support and Public Capital in an Ultra-Declining Birthrate Society," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 634-642.
    3. Challe, Edouard & Le Grand, François & Ragot, Xavier, 2013. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2483-2519.
    4. Poganietz, Witold-Roger, 1997. "Vermindern Transferzahlungen den Konflikt zwischen Gewinnern und Verlierern in einer sich transformierenden Volkswirtschaft?," IAMO Discussion Papers 7, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    5. Ward Romp & Jakob De Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(S1), pages 6-52, April.
    6. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
    7. Miyake, Yusuke, 2022. "Which is Better, Childcare Support or Public Capital Investment?," MPRA Paper 114528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi & Getachew, Yoseph Yilma & Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2016. "Optimal Public Investment, Growth, And Consumption: Evidence From African Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(8), pages 1957-1986, December.
    9. Futagami, Koichi & Konishi, Kunihiko, 2018. "Dynamic analysis of budget policy rules in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-88.
    10. Gaumont, D. & Leonard, D., 2010. "Human capital, externalities and growth in an overlapping generations model," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 186-200, September.
    11. Mouez Fodha & Thomas Seegmuller, 2014. "Environmental Quality, Public Debt and Economic Development," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 57(4), pages 487-504, April.
    12. Robinson, James A. & Srinivasan, T.N., 1993. "Long-term consequences of population growth: Technological change, natural resources, and the environment," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1175-1298, Elsevier.
    13. Valeria De Bonis & Luca Spataro, 2010. "Social discounting, migration, and optimal taxation of savings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 603-623, July.
    14. Karine Constant, 2015. "Environmental Policy and Inequality: A Matter of Life and Death," AMSE Working Papers 1527, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    15. Futagami, Koichi & Shibata, Akihisa, 1998. "Budget Deficits and Economic Growth," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 53(3-4), pages 331-354.
      • Futagami, Koichi & 二神, 孝一 & フタガミ, コウイチ & Shibata, Akihisa & 柴田, 章久 & シバタ, アキヒサ, 2003. "Budget Deficits and Economic Growth," Discussion Paper 133, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    16. Amer TABAKOVIĆ, 2019. "Public Spending in an OLG Economy with Endogenous Technological Change - Financing Matters -," Departmental Working Papers 2019-08, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    17. Leo Kaas, 2016. "Public debt and total factor productivity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 309-333, February.
    18. Haizhou Huang & Danyang Xie, 2008. "Fiscal Sustainability and Fiscal Soundness," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 9(2), pages 239-251, November.
    19. Maebayashi, Noritaka & Hori, Takeo & Futagami, Koichi, 2017. "Dynamic Analysis Of Reductions In Public Debt In An Endogenous Growth Model With Public Capital," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1454-1483, September.
    20. Hippolyte d'Albis & Johanna Etner, 2018. "Illiquid life annuities," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 20(2), pages 277-297, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal rules; Public debt; Economic growth; Demographic changes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:169:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s10645-021-09392-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.