IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Tipping and Concentration in Markets with Indirect Network Effects

  • Jean-Pierre H. Dubé

    ()

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138)

  • Günter J. Hitsch

    ()

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637)

  • Pradeep K. Chintagunta

    ()

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637)

This paper develops a framework for measuring “tipping”—the increase in a firm's market share dominance caused by indirect network effects. Our measure compares the expected concentration in a market to the hypothetical expected concentration that would arise in the absence of indirect network effects. In practice, this measure requires a model that can predict the counterfactual market concentration under different parameter values capturing the strength of indirect network effects. We build such a model for the case of dynamic standards competition in a market characterized by the classic hardware/software paradigm. To demonstrate its applicability, we calibrate it using demand estimates and other data from the 32/64-bit generation of video game consoles, a canonical example of standards competition with indirect network effects. In our example, we find that indirect network effects can lead to a strong, economically significant increase in market concentration. We also find important roles for beliefs on both the demand side, as consumers tend to pick the product they expect to win the standards war, and on the supply side, as firms engage in penetration pricing to invest in growing their networks.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1090.0541
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Marketing Science.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (03-04)
Pages: 216-249

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:29:y:2010:i:2:p:216-249
Contact details of provider: Postal:
7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA

Phone: +1-443-757-3500
Fax: 443-757-3515
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529.
  2. Chou, Chien-fu & Shy, Oz, 1990. "Network effects without network externalities," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 259-270, June.
  3. Paul A. David, 2011. "Path Dependence: A Foundational Concept for Historical Social Science," Chapters, in: Law, Economics and Evolutionary Theory, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  4. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," NBER Working Papers 10450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Heli Koski & Tobias Kretschmer, 2004. "Survey on Competing in Network Industries: Firm Strategies, Market Outcomes, and Policy Implications," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-31, 03.
  6. Jeffrey T. Prince, 2008. "Repeat Purchase amid Rapid Quality Improvement: Structural Estimation of Demand for Personal Computers," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 1-33, 03.
  7. Jean-Charles Rochet & Jean Triole, 2002. "Platform competition in two sided markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24929, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. David Dranove & Neil Gandal, 2003. "The Dvd-vs.-Divx Standard War: Empirical Evidence of Network Effects and Preannouncement Effects," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 363-386, 09.
  9. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller & Seth Sanders & Jeffrey Smith, 1994. "A Simulation Estimator for Dynamic Models of Discrete Choice," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 265-289.
  10. Nair, Harikesh S., 2006. "Intertemporal Price Discrimination with Forward-Looking Consumers: Application to the US Market for Console Video-Games," Research Papers 1947, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  11. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Marc Rysman, 2009. "Dynamics of Consumer Demand for New Durable Goods," NBER Working Papers 14737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Cabral, Luís M B, 2008. "Dynamic Price Competition with Network Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 6687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Shlomo Kalish, 1983. "Monopolist Pricing with Dynamic Demand and Production Cost," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 135-159.
  14. Bart Bronnenberg & Jean Dubé & Carl Mela & Paulo Albuquerque & Tulin Erdem & Brett Gordon & Dominique Hanssens & Guenter Hitsch & Han Hong & Baohong Sun, 2008. "Measuring long-run marketing effects and their implications for long-run marketing decisions," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 367-382, December.
  15. Brett R. Gordon, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of Consumer Replacement Cycles in the PC Processor Industry," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 846-867, 09-10.
  16. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Gautam Gowrisankaran, 2006. "Quantifying equilibrium network externalities in the ACH banking industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 738-761, 09.
  17. Sangin Park, 2004. "Quantitative Analysis of Network Externalities in Competing Technologies: The VCR Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 937-945, November.
  18. Marc Rysman, 2004. "Competition Between Networks: A Study of the Market for Yellow Pages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 483-512.
  19. Harikesh Nair & Pradeep Chintagunta & Jean-Pierre Dubé, 2004. "Empirical Analysis of Indirect Network Effects in the Market for Personal Digital Assistants," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 23-58, 03.
  20. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
  21. Amiya Basu & Tridib Mazumdar & S. P. Raj, 2003. "Indirect Network Externality Effects on Product Attributes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(2), pages 209-221, April.
  22. Armstrong, Mark & Porter, Robert, 2007. "Preface to the Handbook of Industrial Organization, Volume 3," Handbook of Industrial Organization, Elsevier.
  23. Markovich, Sarit, 2008. "Snowball: A dynamic oligopoly model with indirect network effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 909-938, March.
  24. Mark Armstrong & Robert Porter (ed.), 2007. "Handbook of Industrial Organization," Handbook of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 1.
  25. Michael L. Katz & Carl Shapiro, 1994. "Systems Competition and Network Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 93-115, Spring.
  26. Engelbert Dockner & Steffen Jørgensen, 1988. "Optimal Pricing Strategies for New Products in Dynamic Oligopolies," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 7(4), pages 315-334.
  27. Neil Gandal & Michael Kende & Rafael Rob, 2000. "The Dynamics of Technological Adoption in Hardware/Software Systems: The Case of Compact Disc Players," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 43-61, Spring.
  28. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 581-611.
  29. Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2008. "Asymptotic Least Squares Estimators for Dynamic Games -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(3), pages 901-928.
  30. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-37, May.
  31. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1992. "Product Introduction with Network Externalities," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 55-83, March.
  32. Church, J. & Gandal, N., 1991. "Complementary Network Externalities and Technological Adoption," Papers 5-91, Tel Aviv.
  33. Katz, Michael L & Shapiro, Carl, 1985. "Network Externalities, Competition, and Compatibility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 424-40, June.
  34. Sachin Gupta & Dipak C. Jain & Mohanbir S. Sawhney, 1999. "Modeling the Evolution of Markets with Indirect Network Externalities: An Application to Digital Television," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 396-416.
  35. Dan Horsky, 1990. "A Diffusion Model Incorporating Product Benefits, Price, Income and Information," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 342-365.
  36. Hiroshi Ohashi, 2003. "The Role of Network Effects in the US VCR Market, 1978-1986," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 447-494, December.
  37. repec:rje:randje:v:37:y:2006:3:p:738-761 is not listed on IDEAS
  38. Marc Rysman, 2007. "The Empirics of Antitrust in Two-Sided Markets," CPI Journal, Competition Policy International, vol. 3.
  39. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-31, March.
  40. Paul A. David, 2007. "Path dependence: a foundational concept for historical social science," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 1(2), pages 91-114, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormksc:v:29:y:2010:i:2:p:216-249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.