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Data and Model Cross-validation to Improve Accuracy of Microsimulation Results: Estimates for the Polish Household Budget Survey

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  • Michal Myck

    () (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA, ul. Królowej Korony Polskiej 25, 70-486 Szcezcin, Poland)

  • Mateusz Najsztub

    () (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA, ul. Królowej Korony Polskiej 25, 70-486 Szcezcin, Poland)

Abstract

We conduct detailed analysis of the Polish Household Budget Survey data for the years 2006-2011 with the focus on its representativeness from the point of view of microsimulation analysis. We find important discrepancies between the aggregate data weighted with baseline grossing-up weights and official statistics from other sources. A number of re-weighting exercises is examined from the point of view of the accuracy of microsimulation results. We show that using a combination of variables from the data together with a small number of outcomes from the microsimulation model substantially improves the correspondence of simulation results and administrative data. While demographic re-weighting is neutral from the point of view of income distribution, calibrating the weights to adjust for income sources and tax identifiers significantly increases income inequality. We specify a number of factors which ought to be considered in the choice of weight calibration targets. Data re-weighting can substantially improve the accuracy of microsimulation but it should be used with caution.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Myck & Mateusz Najsztub, 2015. "Data and Model Cross-validation to Improve Accuracy of Microsimulation Results: Estimates for the Polish Household Budget Survey," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 8(1), pages 33-66.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijm:journl:v:8:y:2015:i:1:p:33-66
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Arak & Piotr Lewandowski & Piotr Zakowiecki, 2014. "Dual labour market in Poland – proposals for overcoming the deadlock," IBS Policy Papers 1/2014, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    2. Piotr Lewandowski & Katarzyna Salach, 2018. "Pomiar ubostwa energetycznego na podstawie danych BBGD - metodologia i zastosowanie," IBS Research Reports 01/2018, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    3. Arkadiusz Florczak & Janusz Jabłonowski, 2016. "Consumption over the life cycle in Poland," NBP Working Papers 252, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    re-weighting; microsimulation; income inequality;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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