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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets

  • Michele Ca’ Zorzi
  • Elke Hahn
  • Marcelo Sánchez

This paper examines the degree of Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) to prices in 12 emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe. The results, based on three alternative vector autoregressive models, partly overturn the conventional wisdom that ERPT into both import and consumer prices is always higher in ‘emerging’ than in ‘developed’ countries. For emerging markets with only one digit inflation (most notably the Asian countries), pass-through to import and consumer prices is found to be low and not very dissimilar from the levels of developed economies. The paper also finds robust evidence for a positive relationship between the degree of the ERPT and inflation, in line with Taylor’s hypothesis once two outlier countries—Argentina and Turkey— are excluded from the analysis. Finally, the presence of a positive link between import openness and ERPT, while plausible theoretically, finds only weak empirical support.

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Article provided by IUP Publications in its journal The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): V (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 84-102

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Handle: RePEc:icf:icfjmo:v:05:y:2007:i:4:p:84-102
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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 11199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg & Jose M. Gonzalez-Minguez, 2005. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the Euro area," Staff Reports 219, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2002. "Why Do Consumer Prices React less than Import Prices to Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 02.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
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  6. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
  9. Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S., 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Burstein, Ariel Tomas & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2004. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4810, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  12. David Romer, 1991. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
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  17. repec:rus:hseeco:122183 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 0243, European Central Bank.
  19. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 8559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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