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The Risks of Digitalization and the Adaptation of Regional Labor Markets in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Stepan Zemtsov

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation)

  • Vera Barinova

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation)

  • Roza Semenova

    (Association of Innovative Regions of Russia)

Abstract

The implementation of new automation technologies together with the development of artificial intelligence can free up a significant amount of labor. This sharply increases the risks of digital transformation. At the same time, certain regions and cities differ greatly in their ability to adapt to future changes. In this article, we seek to determine the capabilities of Russian regions to reduce risks and adapt to digital transformation. The literature stipulates that there are several factors able to reduce these risks. First of all, they are associated with retraining, ICT and STEAM-technologies’ development, the promotion of economic activities that are less subject to automation. As a result of econometric calculations, we identified several factors that contribute to the new industries’ development (in our case, ICT development), and, accordingly, increase regional adaptivity. These factors include diversification, the concentration of human capital, favorable entrepreneurship conditions, the creative potential of residents, and the development of ICT infrastructure. We identified several regions with high social risks and low adaptivity, which are mainly the poorly developed regions of southern Russia, where entrepreneurial risks are high, STEAM specialists are not trained, shadow economy is large. This work contributes policy tools for adaptation to digital transformation.

Suggested Citation

  • Stepan Zemtsov & Vera Barinova & Roza Semenova, 2019. "The Risks of Digitalization and the Adaptation of Regional Labor Markets in Russia," Foresight and STI Governance, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 84-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:fsight:v:13:y:2019:i:2:p:84-96
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Abdulrazak F. Shahatha Al-Mashhadani & Muhammad Imran Qureshi & Sanil S. Hishan & Mohd Shamsuri Md Saad & Yamunah Vaicondam & Nohman Khan, 2021. "Towards the Development of Digital Manufacturing Ecosystems for Sustainable Performance: Learning from the Past Two Decades of Research," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Trunin Pavel & Bozhechkova Alexandra & Knobel Alexander & Levashenko Antonina & Koval A. & Milogolov Nikolai & Gromov Vladimir & Zemtsov Tsepan & Tsareva Yulia, 2020. "Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-economic Development," Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 9, pages 1-26, May.
    4. Narvaez, Cristian Camilo Moreno, 2022. "Automation and the Labor Market: Evidence from Technological Change in Colombia, 2009-2017," SocArXiv v382q_v1, Center for Open Science.
    5. Evgeniy Kutsenko & Sabyasachi Tripathi & Kirill Tyurchev, 2023. "Does complementarity matter for the emergence of new specialization industries in the regions of Russia?," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(9), pages 2126-2155, December.
    6. Stepan Zemtsov, 2020. "New technologies, potential unemployment and ‘nescience economy’ during and after the 2020 economic crisis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 723-743, August.
    7. S. P. Zemtsov & V. L. Baburin, 2020. "COVID-19: Spatial Dynamics and Diffusion Factors across Russian Regions," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 273-290, July.
    8. Sergey Demin & Anna Mikhaylova & Svetlana Pyankova, 2023. "Digitalization and its impact on regional economy transformation mechanisms," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 14(1), pages 377-390, February.
    9. N. A. Kravchenko & S. R. Khalimova & A. I. Ivanova, 2021. "Regional Factors in the Development of the ICT Sector in Russia," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 91-100, January.
    10. Jamil, Abd Rahim Md. & Law, Siong Hook & Mohamad Khair-Afham, M.S. & Trinugroho, Irwan, 2023. "Financial inclusion and economic uncertainty in developing countries: The role of digitalisation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 786-806.
    11. Vera Barinova & Sylvie Rochhia & Stepan Zemtsov, 2022. "Attracting highly skilled migrants to the Russian regions," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 147-173, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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