IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v17y2025i19p8730-d1760564.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structural Determinants of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Convergence in OECD Countries: A Machine Learning-Based Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Volkan Bektaş

    (Department of Economics, Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University, Zonguldak 67100, Türkiye)

Abstract

This study explores the convergence in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and its determinants across 38 OECD countries during the period 1996–2022, employing the novel approach which combined club convergence method with supervised machine learning algorithm Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The findings reveal the presence of three distinct convergence clubs shaped by structural economic and institutional characteristics. Club 1 exhibits low energy efficiency, high fossil fuel dependence, and weak governance structures; Club 2 features strong institutional quality, advanced human capital, and effective environmental taxation; and Club 3 displays heterogeneous energy profiles but converges through socio-economic foundations. While traditional growth-related drivers such as technological innovation, foreign direct investments, and GDP growth play a limited role in explaining emission convergence, energy structures, institutional and policy-related factors emerge as key determinants. These findings highlight the limitations of one-size-fits-all climate policy frameworks and call for a more nuanced, club-specific approach to emission mitigation strategies. By combining convergence theory with interpretable machine learning, this study contributes a novel empirical framework to assess the differentiated effectiveness of environmental policies across heterogeneous country groups, offering actionable insights for international climate governance and targeted policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Volkan Bektaş, 2025. "Structural Determinants of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Convergence in OECD Countries: A Machine Learning-Based Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-21, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:19:p:8730-:d:1760564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/19/8730/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/19/8730/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Borowiec, Justyna & Papież, Monika, 2024. "Convergence of CO2 emissions in countries at different stages of development. Do globalisation and environmental policies matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    3. Marco R. Barassi & Nicola Spagnolo & Yuqian Zhao, 2018. "Fractional Integration Versus Structural Change: Testing the Convergence of $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(4), pages 923-968, December.
    4. William Brock & M. Taylor, 2010. "The Green Solow model," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 127-153, June.
    5. Joseph E. Aldy, 2007. "Divergence in State-Level Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(3), pages 353-369.
    6. Congguang Xu & Wei Xiong & Simin Zhang & Hailiang Shi & Shichao Wu & Shanju Bao & Tieqiao Xiao, 2025. "Research on the Nonlinear Relationship Between Carbon Emissions from Residential Land and the Built Environment: A Case Study of Susong County, Anhui Province Using the XGBoost-SHAP Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Alison Stegman, 2005. "Convergence In Carbon Emissions Per Capita," CAMA Working Papers 2005-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Joseph Aldy, 2006. "Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Convergence or Divergence?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(4), pages 533-555, April.
    9. Herrerias, M.J., 2013. "The environmental convergence hypothesis: Carbon dioxide emissions according to the source of energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1140-1150.
    10. Warwick J. McKibbin & Alison Stegman, 2005. "Convergence And Per Capita Carbon Emissions," CAMA Working Papers 2005-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Karakaya, Etem & Alataş, Sedat & Yılmaz, Burcu, 2019. "Replication of Strazicich and List (2003): Are CO2 emission levels converging among industrial countries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 135-138.
    12. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2009. "Club Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 47-70, September.
    13. Kerui Du, 2017. "Econometric convergence test and club clustering using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 17(4), pages 882-900, December.
    14. Gul, Eid & Baldinelli, Giorgio & Wang, Jinwen & Bartocci, Pietro & Shamim, Tariq, 2025. "Artificial intelligence based forecasting and optimization model for concentrated solar power system with thermal energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
    15. Hal R. Varian, 2014. "Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 3-28, Spring.
    16. Ali Acaravci & Sinan Erdogan, 2016. "The Convergence Behavior of CO2 Emissions in Seven Regions under Multiple Structural Breaks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 575-580.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rodríguez-Benavides, Domingo & Andrés-Rosales, Roldán & Álvarez-García, José & Bekun, Festus Víctor, 2024. "Convergence of clubs between per capita carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    2. Vaseem Akram & Badri Narayan Rath & Pradipta Kumar Sahoo, 2024. "Club convergence in per capita carbon dioxide emissions across Indian states," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 19907-19934, August.
    3. Cialani, Catia & Mortazavi, Reza, 2021. "Sectoral analysis of club convergence in EU countries’ CO2 emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    4. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Khan, Atif Maqbool & Bibi, Salma & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2017. "Convergence of per capita CO2 emissions across the globe: Insights via wavelet analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 86-97.
    5. Nazlioglu, Saban & Payne, James E. & Lee, Junsoo & Rayos-Velazquez, Marco & Karul, Cagin, 2021. "Convergence in OPEC carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from new panel stationarity tests with factors and breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. Liu, Chang & Hong, Tao & Li, Huaifeng & Wang, Lili, 2018. "From club convergence of per capita industrial pollutant emissions to industrial transfer effects: An empirical study across 285 cities in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 300-313.
    7. Firat Emir & Mehmet Balcilar & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2018. "Inequality in Carbon Intensity in EU-28: Analysis Based on Club Convergence," Working Papers 15-38, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    8. Karakaya, Etem & Sarı, Erkam & Alataş, Sedat, 2021. "What drives material use in the EU? Evidence from club convergence and decomposition analysis on domestic material consumption and material footprint," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Sedat Alataş & Erkam Sarı, 2021. "An Empirical Investigation on Regional Disparities in Public Expenditures: Province Level Evidence from Turkey," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 217-240, November.
    10. Wang, Yiming & Zhang, Pei & Huang, Dake & Cai, Changda, 2014. "Convergence behavior of carbon dioxide emissions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 75-80.
    11. Ordás Criado, C. & Grether, J.-M., 2011. "Convergence in per capita CO2 emissions: A robust distributional approach," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 637-665, September.
    12. Parker, Steven & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2020. "Dynamics and drivers of per capita CO2 emissions in Asia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Patrick Tomberger, 2019. "Testing for Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Using a Bayesian Robust Structural Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1265-1286, August.
    14. Matsuki, Takashi & Pan, Lei, 2021. "Per capita carbon emissions convergence in developing Asia: A century of evidence from covariate unit root test with endogenous structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    15. Cuihong Ye & Yiguo Chen & Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Tsangyao Chang, 2020. "CO2 emissions converge in China and G7 countries? Further evidence from Fourier quantile unit root test," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(2), pages 348-363, March.
    16. LAWSON, Laté A. & MARTINO, Roberto & NGUYEN-VAN, Phu, 2020. "Environmental convergence and environmental Kuznets curve: A unified empirical framework," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 437(C).
    17. Michael Delgado, 2013. "A smooth coefficient model of carbon emissions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1049-1071, December.
    18. Belloc, Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto, 2023. "Are greenhouse gas emissions converging in Latin America? Implications for environmental policies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 337-356.
    19. Burnett, J. Wesley, 2016. "Club convergence and clustering of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-84.
    20. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2017. "Per capita carbon dioxide emissions across U.S. states by sector and fossil fuel source: Evidence from club convergence tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 365-372.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:19:p:8730-:d:1760564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.